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From: david@fisher.UUCP (David Rubin)
Newsgroups: net.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: New Statistic?
Message-ID: <659@fisher.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 6-Jun-85 09:13:42 EDT
Article-I.D.: fisher.659
Posted: Thu Jun  6 09:13:42 1985
Date-Received: Fri, 7-Jun-85 02:47:18 EDT
References: <3900007@csd2.UUCP>
Organization: Princeton University Department of Statistics
Lines: 53

> Watching Keith Hernandez play has given me an idea for a new statistic
> to measure fielding effectiveness. Call it Runs Saved. Say that a player
> gets a run saved if he makes a play to prevent a run from scoring,
> when a failure to make the play probably wouldn't have been an error.
> What I have in mind is only the plays that directly prevent a run from
> scoring, not the ones that, for example, prevent a runner from reaching
> base who would later have scored. So your typical run saved play would
> be: runners at second and third, Hernandez grabs a line drive over
> his head - two runs saved.
> Of course, we should also subtract errors a player makes which directly
> allow a run to score. It seems to me that this would measure how good a
> player is at fielding in crucial situations.
> 
> Isaac Dimitrovsky

While the intentions are noble, I have some objections to such a
statistic.  First, it is situational.  Unless someone can demonstrate
the existance of "clutch" fielding, it would appear to me that a great
fielding play would occur at both critical and non-critical junctures
of a game with equal likelihood.  Thus the statistic would to a large
degree measure random factors (who got the ball hit at them at the
critical juncture) rather than skill, which is what we are presumably
trying to measure.

Second, it is heavily dependent upon the team the player plays on,
especially the pitching staff.  It favors players who play on teams
with poor pitching, as they will have more fielding opportunites and
more of those opportunities will occur with runners on base and in
scoring position.  It would favor first basemen on teams with
predominately right-handed staffs, for example.  It would favor
infielders on teams with a few sinkerballers.  It would favor center
fielders who play in big ballparks. Etc.

Third, it is judgmental.  I assume the official scorer would be
responsible for deciding if and how many run saved are to be awarded,
and I don't trust official scorers.  There is sure to be substantial
favoritism, as there is now in judging hits and errors.  However,
since there will supposedly be relatively few runs saved awarded, such
biasedness will be tremendously magnified.

Fourth, it will encourage hot-dogging.  As the league leaders will be
rewarded financially for their accomplishment, there will be a
financial incentive to make plays look hard.  Rather than making a
routine running catch, an outfielder may attempt to time his approach
to the ball so as to make a diving catch, for example.

Fifth (this is the most critical, but also the most opinionated), I
believe it will punish true defensive excellence.  We already see this
in fielding percentage, where a Hernandez is charged an error on a
ball where a Garvey would never have been able to even attempt a play.

					David Rubin
			{allegra|astrovax|princeton}!fisher!david