Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84 +MULTI+2.11; site datlog.UUCP
Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!cmcl2!seismo!mcvax!ukc!stc!datlog!dc
From: dc@datlog.UUCP ( David Crone )
Newsgroups: net.astro,net.sf-lovers
Subject: Re: Quantum Universe
Message-ID: <262@datlog.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 22-Aug-85 05:26:39 EDT
Article-I.D.: datlog.262
Posted: Thu Aug 22 05:26:39 1985
Date-Received: Fri, 30-Aug-85 00:41:35 EDT
References: <696@inuxe.UUCP> <115@tekchips.UUCP>
Reply-To: dc@datlog.UUCP ( David Crone )
Distribution: net
Organization: Data Logic Ltd, Greenford, London.
Lines: 37
Xref: linus net.astro:860 net.sf-lovers:8628
Summary: Invalid conclusion implied from probablity theory
Xpath: stc stc-a

In article <115@tekchips.UUCP> wm@tekchips.UUCP (Wm Leler) writes:
>
>> I've just read an interesting article in the August 3, 1985
>> Science News titled "The Quantum Universe : A Zero-Point 
>> Fluctuation?". In the article a Mr (Dr?) Don N. Page of the
>> Institute of Advanced Study in Prinction N.J. is credited with
>> the following observation:
>> 
>> 	"Page estimates that the chances of 'The Creator sticking
>> 	 in a pin' and pulling out just this combination of qualities
>> 	 that makes such a unique universe are way beyond
>> 	 astronomical, 1 in (10,000,000,000)^124."
>>	
>
>Lets say I have a die with (10,000,000,000)^124 faces.  I throw
>this die, and let's say that the face numbered 5,903,256,541,008,
>192,234,865,234,505,314,262,195,000,105,524,578,234 comes up.
>Well, the probability that that particular face came up is *so*
>astronomical, that it couldn't possibly have.  Therefore, God
>must exist.
>
>The probability that this universe exists is 1.  As long as there
>is a universe, it may as well be the one we are currently in, no?
>The number 1 in (10,000,000,000)^124 seems more likely to be a
>measure of the probability that there is another universe identical
>to the one we are in.
>
>wm

Just because there is a high probability against something occurring does not
mean that it COULD'NT have occurred.
We could argue that the existence of the Universe in its current form is proof
that the 1 in 10,000,000,000^124 chance actually happened, but that's an
argument for net.origins perhaps.


David C.