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From: tonyw@ubvax.UUCP (Tony Wuersch)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Definitive expose' of Sandinistas?
Message-ID: <312@ubvax.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 30-Aug-85 14:48:57 EDT
Article-I.D.: ubvax.312
Posted: Fri Aug 30 14:48:57 1985
Date-Received: Mon, 9-Sep-85 01:24:44 EDT
References: <296@ubvax.UUCP> <1531@bbncca.ARPA> <304@ubvax.UUCP> <516@qantel.UUCP>
Reply-To: tonyw@ubvax.UUCP (Tony Wuersch)
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In article <516@qantel.UUCP> gabor@qantel.UUCP (Gabor Fencsik@ex2642) writes:
>> It should be noted that even in Communist countries, general national
>> statistics appear valid by all comparative tests US analysts put to
>> them.  Nicaraguan statistics are probably good, too.  As reported
>> by international agencies, they show great progress. [TONY WUERSCH]
>
>Another great source of progressive statistics is the Ethiopian
>goverment which has just eliminated cholera by reclassifying it 
>as 'acute disentery'. 
>
>'Soft' statistics on literacy, alcoholism, suicide and the like are
>notoriously easy to manipulate, especially in countries with no
>traditions of a professional civil service. More so if the legitimacy
>of the regime rides on the result. The best one can say is that nobody
>has managed to keep double books on these numbers so the leadership
>is usually as much in the dark as the outside world. And if all else 
>fails, one can stop publishing statistics altogether, like the USSR
>did last year when life expectancy figures vanished from official  
>handbooks.
> 
>-----
>Gabor Fencsik               {ihnp4,dual,hplabs,intelca}!qantel!gabor   

I would make the argument that Nicaraguan national statistics are good
for three reasons:  first, the economy is very open (dependent on foreign
trade); second, there is a huge international community in Managua which
would and does keep tabs on these things; third, there haven't been any
scandals like 'acute dysentery' in Ethiopia.  Ethiopia and Nicaragua
are both countries which lots of people and lots of journalists watch.
Any errors they make or concealments they attempt should get caught
quickly.

Statistics on alcoholism and suicide are self-reported and up to the
interpretation of local police authorities.  They usually stink.
But health care and literacy statistics are usually collected by
professional doctors or done from standard tests, so I wouldn't
call them "soft".

Nicaragua is more open than Ethiopia in part because it never had a
period since the revolution where it wasn't exposed to forces of
world opinion.  Ethiopia, on the other hand, was ignored during the
bloodiest years of the Dergue, which Mengistu is still at the head
of.  During these years, USSR and East German influence was much deeper
and more extensive, because Ethiopia didn't care about public opinion,
than it's ever been in Nicaragua.

Tony Wuersch
{amd,amdcad}!cae780!ubvax!tonyw