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From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 38
Message-ID: <20564@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 23-Sep-85 23:10:51 EDT
Article-I.D.: mgweed.20564
Posted: Mon Sep 23 23:10:51 1985
Date-Received: Fri, 27-Sep-85 07:32:15 EDT
Organization: AT&T Information Systems - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 31


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 38  from arrl headquarters
newington ct  september 23, 1985
to all radio amateurs bt

if the solar flux continues through the balance of september at
levels  sustained thus far, there will be a new monthly low for
this solar cycle, close to 70.  even with the best  months  for
the  northern  hemisphere,  the  fall season, now at hand, this
would mean little dx on 28 mhz, except on  north  south  paths.
considerably greater geographical coverage will be available on
21 mhz but only  on  daylight  paths.   even  14  mhz  will  be
primarily  a  daylight  band  unless  we  have much higher flux
levels.   though  propagation  is  improving   on   our   lower
frequencies,  dx  will  become easier on the ears as electrical
storms die down as cooler weather  spreads  over  the  northern
hemisphere.  our cold nights bring hot propagation on the lower
frequencies except  when  geomagnetic  activity  is  high.   as
predicted last week, we have had a rough time with high k and a
indices since about september 10.  no great improvement in this
respect  is likely until near the end of september.  conditions
change rapidly as surges of particles from the  sun  enter  the
earths  atmosphere.   contrary to what we might expect, auroral
conditions can be quite severe in the low years  of  the  solar
cycle.   the  current trend toward high and erratic wwv k and a
indices is bad news, unless you live in  the  higher  latitudes
and  enjoy  auroral  dx  on  the  vhf  bands.  american sunspot
numbers for september 12 through 18 were between 12 and 18 with
a mean of 9.1  ar


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