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From: ajs@hpfcla.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.misc
Subject: The coming oil crisis
Message-ID: <18500018@hpfcla.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 27-Sep-85 13:37:00 EDT
Article-I.D.: hpfcla.18500018
Posted: Fri Sep 27 13:37:00 1985
Date-Received: Wed, 2-Oct-85 09:05:50 EDT
Organization: 27 Sep 85 11:37:00 MDT
Lines: 20

Some interesting extrapolation from a recent AP article...  units are
billions of barrels.

 360	1/2 of current known oil reserves (the amount in the Middle East)
 720	thus, the total known reserves (my guess)
 550	USGS estimate of undiscovered reserves
1270	total oil left to use on the planet (my guess)

  20	annual worldwide consumption (recently pretty steady)

63.5	thus, years of oil remaining at current rate (my guess)
2048	the year the wells all run dry

The article quoted someone as pointing out that we can expect severe
disruptions long before the oil is completely gone -- maybe within ten
years as consumption increases and production capacity decreases to
the same level.  Food for thought...

Alan Silverstein, Hewlett-Packard Fort Collins Systems Division, Colorado
{ihnp4 | hplabs}!hpfcla!ajs, 303-226-3800 x3053, N 40 31'31" W 105 00'43"


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