Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84; site ccivax.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!allegra!mit-eddie!genrad!panda!talcott!harvard!seismo!rochester!ritcv!ccivax!rb From: rb@ccivax.UUCP (rex ballard) Newsgroups: net.dcom Subject: Re:PC Pursuit (opinions) sources, apology Message-ID: <305@ccivax.UUCP> Date: Thu, 10-Oct-85 18:31:37 EDT Article-I.D.: ccivax.305 Posted: Thu Oct 10 18:31:37 1985 Date-Received: Mon, 14-Oct-85 03:45:22 EDT References: <423@isucs1.UUCP> Organization: CCI Telephony Systems Group, Rochester NY Lines: 78 > > RE: Talk about PC Pursuit/etc. > > ccivax!rb writes: > > [...] > > Currently less than 1% of all current computer ^maybe 3% ^home > > owners use a modem for more than an hour a week, if costs can go down > > and services can improve, you may eventually see the time when you can > > use your telephone like a disk drive. > > Has anyone seen this statistic anywhere else? Can this > be substanated by information from a known published source? > [I'm not questioning its correctness at all, just that it's > >REALLY< hard to believe {for me} that it's SOOOOOOooooo... > !*LOW*!] > > Is there another statistic for computer owners WITH > modems? [id est: Are there any computer/modem owners that > don't use their modem more than a hour a week, or is the > above statistic just that?] > > /// Dave Shaver -=*=- Actually dave, this is a distortion of statistics. This figure was based on two separate sources. The first was a research study conducted by Future Computing, Inc. Which stated that of 12.2 million home computer owners 11% or 1,342,000 purchased modems. This was published in EE electronic/electrical product news (May 85). The important thing to note here is that that may include owners of Sinclair/Timex, Vic-20, Aquarius, and similar "low end" models. Many of these don't even support modems. Only 50% of these owners had floppy disk drives. The other, which I am having a hard time locating, showed a graph of modem use by modem owners. Approximately 80% used their modems less than an hour per week leaving 20% who used them more often (MUCH MORE OFTEN). In this case though, I believe the source was referring to useage of commercial sources like Compuserve, Delphi, and The Source. I believe it was the commercial services that were surveyed. I believe the source was Info-World or Mini-Micro Systems. Do you find it hard to believe that such a small group of people spent more that a few hours a month on services charging $6-$50/hour? Remember, you are balancing 1,342,000 home users against a relatively small group of businesses. most people don't want to pay $200/month in "Modem" bills. My guess is that free BBS usage was not included in this survey. Of course, 20% of 11% is still 2.2%, so my information was an exaggeration. Very sorry. Both surveys were taken almost a year ago, when dumb 300 baud modems were selling for around $100. I am sure that with Radio Shack selling them at $50, the picture in both ownership and usage has changed. Of course, there is also the issue of "Ease of Use" for communications software. An interesting article there is one of Adam Greene's Info-World columns. The point in quoting that particular statistic was to point out that there is a very big potential market out there which has not even been scratched yet, and that PC-Persuit was an attempt to turn that market, particularly BBS users, into a profitable business. The second point was that when this market ever reaches full potential, with even 5 million people spending an hour or two on their favorite BBS every day, digital phone trunks could get filled real fast. The code words to watch for are ISDN, PCM, T1, and OSI (Open Systems Interconnect). The original posting was in response to an article saying that Telenet "couldn't possibly make money". I simply attempted to point out how truly profitable "being the electronic middle-man" could really be! In essence, PC-Pursuit is like an Urban transit system. If you can get enough people on the same route, everybody saves by taking the bus. If you get a LOT more, everybody save by taking a TRAIN. The nice thing is that all [PC-Pursuit] users get "door to door" service. I hope it gets to Rochester soon! [opinions are mine and subject to change without notice] Rex.