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From: al@ames.UUCP (Al Globus)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Soviet Conventional Offensive Capability, an unConventional view
Message-ID: <1182@ames.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 8-Oct-85 22:44:48 EDT
Article-I.D.: ames.1182
Posted: Tue Oct  8 22:44:48 1985
Date-Received: Sat, 12-Oct-85 06:19:38 EDT
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Organization: NASA-Ames Research Center, Mtn. View, CA
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> 
> >5.  The Soviet Navy is divided by geography into four separate forces
> >that cannot support each other.  This allowed a smaller Japanese Navy
> >to sink most of the Russian fleet around the turn of the century.
> 
> I seem to recall that an intelligence leak played a role there.

A role perhaps, although the book I read on the conflict recently did
not mention any leak.  A look at any map will illustrait my point quite
well, geography gives Russia an incredible disadvantage in a naval conflict.

> 
> To be fair, in WW1 it was Russia that invaded Germany first.

Mostly 'cause the German war plan called for defeating France and England
first.  I wasn't trying to make a moral point, just that invading armies
come into Russia from the west alot, not that Russia doesn't earn the
invasions.
> 
> My conclusion: You can't be too careful or too strong when
> 	       dealing with the Soviets. Also I would expect
> 	       they would have an easier time overunning
> 	       Western Europe (were it not for tactical nukes,
> 	       etc.) than they have had in Afghanistan.

However it is unwise to double your national debt, become a debtor nation,
and run out of money in part because of $300 billion plus defense budgets 
unless there is a real threat.  We have done all these things and they
weaken us.
things
> 
> The Soviets are very shrewd, patient and careful. They seem to
> pick on the weakest points where they can achieve maximal gains
> with minimal risks. 

They also are very inefficient and fairly corrupt.  Their people do
not speak a common language and there is widespread disaffection with
the regime.  All of this reduces their offensive military ability.


Thank you for a very thoughtful, interesting response.

		Al Globus