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From: jhr2@houem.UUCP (J.ROSENBLUTH)
Newsgroups: net.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: The Dodgers are rolling!
Message-ID: <401@houem.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 14-Oct-85 17:01:07 EDT
Article-I.D.: houem.401
Posted: Mon Oct 14 17:01:07 1985
Date-Received: Tue, 15-Oct-85 20:30:06 EDT
References: <33400021@ISM780.UUCP>
Organization: AT&T Bell Labs, Holmdel NJ
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          > Steals are very underrated. When a guy like Coleman
          > steals second 90 or so times, that's like hitting 90 or
          > so doubles.  If someone hit 90 doubles, they'd be in
          > the Hall of Fame by summer.

No way.

A stolen base is at best an *exchange* of a single for a double.
You gain one base.  You do not get additional base runners.  You do not
extend the inning for other batters.  On the other hand if a batter
doubles instead of making an out you get two bases, one additional
baserunner and one extra batter.

And it's at *best* an exchange, because sometimes you get picked off
or caught stealing.  And the "doubles" occaisonally fail to
move a runner from first to either third or home, or a runner
from second to home.

On the other hand, the stolen base might yet be underated.
How much of an effect does a stolen base threat have on the next hitter?
And finally, the ballpark, the score and the number of outs also
play important roles as to the worth of a stolen base.

				Josh Rosenbluth (...!houxm!houem!jhr2)