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From: aegroup@tekigm.UUCP (Dennis Ward)
Newsgroups: net.games.board
Subject: Re: Rail Baron Strategies
Message-ID: <629@tekigm.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 20-Nov-85 11:20:57 EST
Article-I.D.: tekigm.629
Posted: Wed Nov 20 11:20:57 1985
Date-Received: Sat, 23-Nov-85 03:18:48 EST
Distribution: net
Organization: Tektronix, Beaverton OR
Lines: 34

> > 
> > 	Why do you want a South East railroad? The South East only comes
> > up as a destination 7% of the time anyway!!!
> > 
> 
> If you can't get the PA, B&O, etc, it's nice when you are in the west
> and roll the region that you're in to have a faraway safe place to
> choose.  So although you are only forced to go to the South East
> 7% of the time, you actually go there more often if you own most of it.
> 
> Bill Stoll, ..!whuxlm!wws

And if you use the "Seattle Rules" the odds of getting the SE increase.  
Under the "Seattle Rules" reaching Southeast requires:
     an odd 3
     an odd 10 
     or an even 6


The odds of rolling an odd 3 are [(l/2)(1/6 + 1/6)];
the odds of rolling an odd 10 are {[1/2][(1/6 + 1/6)(1/6 + 1/6)]};
and finally the odds of rolling an even 6 are 
	 {[1/2][(1/6 + 1/6)(1/6 + 1/6)(1/6 + 1/6)]}.

To get the odds of any of these to happen is the sum of these three
probabilities or reducing this down:

	  (1/6) + (1/18) + (1/54) = .24 or 24%

	  This compares to the 7% for the original rules.

	  All of the above based on the forumulas of probability as expressed
	  in "Introduction to Modern Algebra" by Neal H. McCoy.  (And at least
	  20 years after receiving my B.S. in Math!)