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From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 48
Message-ID: <22117@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 2-Dec-85 21:47:24 EST
Article-I.D.: mgweed.22117
Posted: Mon Dec  2 21:47:24 1985
Date-Received: Thu, 5-Dec-85 04:20:32 EST
Organization: AT&T Information Systems - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 42


qst de k9eui
hr  arrl  propagation  forecast  bulletin  nr  48   from   arrl
headquarters
newington ct  december 2, 1985
to all radio amateurs bt

september through november, normally a good time for hf  dx  in
the  northern  hemisphere, provided almost textbook examples of
the effects of solar activity on our dx bands.   the  september
solar  flux  high  was  73, and that on the first day.  with an
average of 69.5 the month was rough on the users of 21, 24  and
28 mhz.  even 14 mhz was marginal most of the time.

early october was worse, with a flux average of  66.9  for  the
first  13  days,  none  of them above 69.  funeral arrangements
were being made for cycle 21, until it came alive on  the  14th
and  the flux climbed steadily to 95 in the third week.  the 21
mhz band was jumping by this time, and activity began  to  pick
up on 24 and 28 mhz again.

november was quieter, but the flux was 75 or higher  more  than
half  of  the  time, reaching 86 at mid month. as predicted the
last week of november  brought  low  geomagnetic  activity  and
exceptional signal levels on all frequencies (garble).

we enter december with the solar flux at 70, but with prospects
for  a  gradual  rise, peaking about the 12th.  the area of the
sun  now  facing  earth  has  been  giving   us   mostly   good
propagation,  with  only  minor  disturbances.  the wwv k index
should be watched closely this weekend and next.  k values of 2
or  lower  particularly  with  a downward trend make for strong
stable signals on high latitude paths.  flux levels are not too
critical  at  this season, except as they move into the low 70s
or high 60s.  even these low values will not wipe out 21 and 24
mhz  entirely,  but  they  limit 28 mhz coverage severely.  the
best of december is likely to be the 18th through the 24th.

watch 28 mhz and the vhf  bands  for  signal  bursts  from  the
geminid  meteors.   peaking december 10 through 14, this is one
of the more intense and reliable meteor showers.  ar.