Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Path: utzoo!henry From: henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) Newsgroups: net.space Subject: Re: A High Tech Maginot Line Message-ID: <6231@utzoo.UUCP> Date: Mon, 16-Dec-85 14:45:41 EST Article-I.D.: utzoo.6231 Posted: Mon Dec 16 14:45:41 1985 Date-Received: Mon, 16-Dec-85 14:45:41 EST References: <8512020718.AA15110@s1-b.arpa> <6219@utzoo.UUCP>, <759@petrus.UUCP> Organization: U of Toronto Zoology Lines: 29 > I've got a better solution. Let's establish a treaty that bans all further > tests of anti-satellite weapons by either side. That'll effectively keep > the Soviets from developing the "space blockade" capability of which you > speak. Only if it also bans development of boost-phase missile interception, which is much closer to the problem at hand. And only if it is completely verifiable, which I fear I have no confidence in. Bear in mind that such a treaty will *most* *assuredly* remove the West's ability to *break* such a blockade, which means we would be relying 100% on the treaty with no backup. When I hear someone say "of course it will work 100%", I want to see the backup system that will handle the remaining "0%". I'd want to be very sure that the treaty was airtight and that development of a blockade system would detectably and unambiguously violate it with plenty of lead time. Consider the debates now current about things like the size of Soviet underground tests and the alleged SALT II violations. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that a blockade system could be operational before Congress could be fully convinced it was under development! Improbable, maybe; impossible, no. Bear in mind that the Soviets seem to be copying a good many US attitudes to weapons procurement; can the "of course it will work, no need to test it thoroughly" attitude be far behind? Note that a blockade system does not need to be highly reliable -- the ability to shoot down 1 out of every 5 unauthorized launches is probably sufficient. -- Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology {allegra,ihnp4,linus,decvax}!utzoo!henry