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From: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams)
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: Re: Manned Mars Trip
Message-ID: <909@mmintl.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 18-Dec-85 18:49:33 EST
Article-I.D.: mmintl.909
Posted: Wed Dec 18 18:49:33 1985
Date-Received: Sat, 21-Dec-85 06:28:46 EST
References: <8512071719.AA10364@s1-b.arpa> <489@iham1.UUCP> <6218@utzoo.UUCP>
Reply-To: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams)
Organization: Multimate International, E. Hartford, CT
Lines: 35

In article <6218@utzoo.UUCP> henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) writes:
>> (To get back to the subject line):  A Mars project may be the way to
>> get Americans as excited as they were for the Apollo project.  If this
>> happens then we may just get the funding we need.  Funding for a Mars
>> project may necessarily include many of the programs that we feel
>> are necessary.
>
>Unfortunately, the analogy to Apollo may be all too apt.  What happens
>after the First Mars Expedition returns?  How long before the budget
>starts getting cut back, back, back, on the grounds that "you've finished
>your job"?
>
>Yes, a Mars mission would require building many capabilities that would
>be useful for other things.  And they might well get thrown away afterward.

The question is, would a Mars mission develop *enough* capabilities to
make commercial use of space practical?  If so, they wouldn't be thrown
away; part of the problem after Apollo was that there wasn't any economic
use for the hardware.

I haven't seen any attempt to determine whether the Mars mission would
produce sufficient technology.  Part of the problem here is the imponder-
ables.  It is hard to estimate what an as-yet-undeveloped launch system
will cost in actual operation -- particularly since cost/development time
trade-offs are possible.  One can do little more than guess at the
economics of proposed space industries, so it is hard to tell what launch
cost is required to make them profitable.

One of the reasons I support the space station is that it changes the
way subsequent missions get planned.  Once you have a permanent operational
facility in orbit, it makes sense to use it for such things.  This leads to
the development of space capabilities, not just launch capabilities.

Frank Adams                           ihpn4!philabs!pwa-b!mmintl!franka
Multimate International    52 Oakland Ave North    E. Hartford, CT 06108