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From: eder@ssc-vax.UUCP (Dani Eder)
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: Re: Manned Mars Trip
Message-ID: <429@ssc-vax.UUCP>
Date: Sun, 22-Dec-85 19:04:03 EST
Article-I.D.: ssc-vax.429
Posted: Sun Dec 22 19:04:03 1985
Date-Received: Wed, 25-Dec-85 23:34:24 EST
References: <8512071719.AA10364@s1-b.arpa>, <489@iham1.UUCP> <6218@utzoo.UUCP> <754@petrus.UUCP>
Organization: Boeing Aerospace Co., Seattle, WA
Lines: 60

> I keep hearing that the cost of launching something on the shuttle is
> $X/kg, and further that this cost is N times launching it on the Saturn
> V had we kept the production lines open. The exact values of X and N
> keep changing, but the argument is the same.
> 
> Can someone present a DETAILED breakdown of the actual costs (not prices)
> for the two launchers? These figures should be broken down into three
> categories:
> 
> 1. Up-front launcher development costs (research, development, testing).


     According to figures I got from the NASA History Office, the three
stages of the Saturn V launch vehicle cost $5 billion each in today's (1986)
dollars to develop.  This excludes launch facility costs.  The Space Shuttle
program cost a total of $15 billion in total through the end of the 4th flight
test, but that figure does not include inhertiance from the Saturn program.
As an example, the Vehicle Assembly Building was modified for the Shuttle, but
the modifications cost much less than building a new facility from scratch.> 
> 2. Continuing operational costs that are relatively independent of the
> launch rate (JSC and KSC salaries, computer system maintenance contracts,
> electric bills, janitorial and landscaping services, that kind of thing).
> 

     According to figures given to us by the Air Force for use in our current
Space Transportation Architecture study, the Kennedy Space Center and Vanden-
berg Air Force Base launch sites cost about $420 million per year each to
operate, independant of launch rate.  One Orbiter costs $2.4 billion dollars
if ordered today.  If you wait till next year to order one, the cost goes up,
because all the subcontractors will have gone on to other things than making
shuttles.  
> 3. Actual per-mission costs that are directly attributable to things
> consumed during each mission (fuel and other consumables, SRB refurbishment,
> ET and other one-shot components, short-term contract labor, etc).

     The cost of External Tanks depends on the production rate, as does many
other components.  An approximation for flight dependant costs is
     $1570 million for 24 flights/year +- 25 million per flight /year above
and below 24 per year.  As an aside, the liquid propellants cost $1.4
million per flight.  According to my boss, who once was in charge of Saturn
improvements at Boeing, the cost per flight of the Saturn was running $750
million at the height of the Apollo program.  Since the payload of the Saturn
V to low earth orbit is 240,000 lb, the marginal cost per lb was a little
over $3000.  When the Shuttle reaches 24 flights per year, the operating
costs will be about $100 million per flight.  Allowing for Orbiter life o
f 100 flights, $24 million in vehicle depreciation should be added.  Hence
the true COST of the Shuttle per flight will be $125 million, or about
$2000/lb.> 
> I think we have to present the costs broken down this way if we're to
> come up with a useful result. A single figure of $X/kg is bound to be
> misleading.

     Very true.  One useful way to look at the comparison between Shuttle
and Saturn is cost breakeven from development.  The Shuttle costs $1000/lb
less to operate than Saturn.  To recoup the development cost of $15 billion
requires the launch of 15 million pounds of payload, or about 225 flights.
> 
> Phil

Dani Eder/Advanced Space Transportation/Boeing/ssc-vax!eder