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Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!pwa-b!mmintl!franka
From: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams)
Newsgroups: net.sport.football
Subject: Re: AFC Central tie breaker
Message-ID: <934@mmintl.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 24-Dec-85 18:50:05 EST
Article-I.D.: mmintl.934
Posted: Tue Dec 24 18:50:05 1985
Date-Received: Sat, 28-Dec-85 12:48:24 EST
References: <19000005@hpcnoe.UUCP> <288@hsi.UUCP>
Reply-To: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams)
Organization: Multimate International, E. Hartford, CT
Lines: 33

In article <288@hsi.UUCP> boucher@hsi.UUCP (Keith Boucher) writes:
>The following steps are used to break division ties in the NFL:
>
>	1. Head-to-head competition record among the clubs.
>	2. Record in all division games.
>	3. Record in all conference games.
>	4. Record in games against common opponents.
>	5. Best net point average in division games.
>	6. Best net point average in conference games.
>	7. Strength of schedule
>	8. Best net touchdowns in all games.
>	9. Coin Toss

I always thought that number 7 should be number 1.  If the object is to
get the best team into the playoffs, this is the best way to do it.  I
believe that, statistically (under reasonable assumptions), the winner
in head-to-head competition between two teams with the same record and
the same opponents is more often the worse team than the better one.
(This is because a single event, A beating B, offsets two events: X beating
A and B beating X, in reaching the same final record.)  Now I am not
advocating that number 1 should be turned around -- just that it should
be downgraded in importance.

Of the others, 5, 6, and 8 tend to favor high scoring teams (14-3 is a more
decisive victory than 42-28); they also have the undesirable side effect of
encouraging teams to pile on points.  Number 4 is probably the best of the
rest. So I would probably reorder these in the order: 7, 4, 2, 3, 1, 5, 6,
8, 9.  (9 is clearly a last resort.)

Any other opinions?

Frank Adams                           ihpn4!philabs!pwa-b!mmintl!franka
Multimate International    52 Oakland Ave North    E. Hartford, CT 06108