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Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!dpb
From: dpb@philabs.UUCP (Paul Benjamin)
Newsgroups: net.sport.football
Subject: Re: Re: AFC Central tie breaker
Message-ID: <537@philabs.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 30-Dec-85 13:51:07 EST
Article-I.D.: philabs.537
Posted: Mon Dec 30 13:51:07 1985
Date-Received: Tue, 31-Dec-85 01:04:56 EST
References: <19000005@hpcnoe.UUCP> <288@hsi.UUCP> <934@mmintl.UUCP>
Organization: Philips Labs, Briarcliff Manor, NY
Lines: 39

> In article <288@hsi.UUCP> boucher@hsi.UUCP (Keith Boucher) writes:
> >The following steps are used to break division ties in the NFL:
> >
> >	1. Head-to-head competition record among the clubs.
> >	2. Record in all division games.
> >	3. Record in all conference games.
> >	4. Record in games against common opponents.
> >	5. Best net point average in division games.
> >	6. Best net point average in conference games.
> >	7. Strength of schedule
> >	8. Best net touchdowns in all games.
> >	9. Coin Toss
> 
> I always thought that number 7 should be number 1.  If the object is to
> get the best team into the playoffs, this is the best way to do it.  I
> believe that, statistically (under reasonable assumptions), the winner
> in head-to-head competition between two teams with the same record and
> the same opponents is more often the worse team than the better one.
> (This is because a single event, A beating B, offsets two events: X beating
> A and B beating X, in reaching the same final record.)  

This is true if the two teams had the same record against the same
opponents, as you state. However, this is rarely the case. For example,
in the AFC Central, where all this was pertinent, if Cleveland and 
Cincinnati had tied at 8-8, they did not have exactly the same opponents
this year. 

Often, two teams in the same division face different opponents in the
same conference. And if their division is playing a five-team division
in the other conference, they each play four of those teams. Thus, they
could face different opponents from that division.

Another minor complication is that even when they play the same teams,
often one will play a team at home, and the other will play that team
on the road. This can sometimes be a very different proposition (e.g.,
Detroit).

So it seems to me to leave it as it is. Let the teams decide by playing
each other.