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Path: utzoo!lsuc!watmath!sunybcs!lazarus
From: lazarus@sunybcs.UUCP (Daniel G. Winkowski)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Enforceable agreement
Message-ID: <2770@sunybcs.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 23-Jan-86 15:41:45 EST
Article-I.D.: sunybcs.2770
Posted: Thu Jan 23 15:41:45 1986
Date-Received: Sat, 25-Jan-86 09:46:58 EST
References: <696@cylixd.UUCP> <1058@mmintl.UUCP>
Reply-To: lazarus@gort.UUCP (Daniel G. Winkowski)
Organization: SUNY/Buffalo Computer Science
Lines: 43
Summary: 


Daydreaming Scenario #114...

USSR pulls out of nuclear armament talks.

SDI envisioned and announced by Reagan.

USSR agrees to new talks for the good of humanity :-), but SDI which
is viewed as a severe disruption in mutual assured destruction (MAD)
must be scrapped.

US is adamant in pursuing SDI.

USSR propaganda ploy: proposal to reduce nuclear arms to 0 in 15 years
at the expense of SDI, and on site inspections are thrown in for good
measure.

US coup: US agrees to the above proposal in full realization that SDI
has major problems (in expense, reliability, and future counter measures
which will be used to undermine its effectiveness), and that the USSR
could never agree to a complete dismantling of their nuclear weapons
for the same reason as the US. 

USSR is backed into a corner and either:
	A) agrees with no intention of total reduction, and after
	   X years an international incident causes the abandonment
	   of the total reduction policy (hopefully in a way in which
	   the USSR is seen to be a fault).
	
	B) modifies their proposal to a realistic reduction (showing
	   that the first proposal was just an exercise in propaganda).
	
Either way the US wins if it finally learns to play the propaganda
game on world class terms.

--------------
Dan Winkowski @ SUNY Buffalo Computer Science (716-636-2193)
UUCP:	..![bbncca,decvax,dual,rocksanne,watmath]!sunybcs!lazarus
CSNET:	lazarus@Buffalo.CSNET     ARPA:	lazarus%buffalo@CSNET-RELAY
[=]
Today we live in the future,
Tomorrow we'll live for the moment,
But, pray we never live in the past.