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From: wheatley@inuxi.UUCP (Steven Wheatley)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: ARRL PROPAGATION FORECAST BULLETIN NR 5
Message-ID: <284@inuxi.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 4-Feb-86 09:28:14 EST
Article-I.D.: inuxi.284
Posted: Tue Feb  4 09:28:14 1986
Date-Received: Wed, 5-Feb-86 07:05:27 EST
Distribution: net
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products, Indianapolis
Lines: 38

qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 5  from arrl headquarters
newington ct  february 3, 1986
to all radio amateurs bt

last weeks bulletin ended with a prediction  of  a  solar  flux
rise, but what actually happened surpassed all expectations.  a
sizable new sunspot group came around the east limb january 30,
but  its effects had already been seen in a 7 point rise in the
solar flux, beginning on the 28th.  the number and size of  the
spots  increased, and on february 2 another spot appeared, this
time in the western half of the disc.  the flux reached 90, its
highest  since last october.  signals were heard on 21 mhz from
africa to southern europe  with  w6  and  w7  stations  all  in
together.  on 24 and 28 mhz the west coast call areas were also
in well, working w1 and w2 land not audible in florida.

the new lease on life for 10,  12  and  15  meters  could  last
through  much  of the forecast week.  it may be washed out by a
recurrence of the disturbance  of  january  7,  expected  about
february 4 or 5.

it will be of interest to see if the lower solar flux peaks  of
november  15,  december  16 and january 16, all apparently from
one area of the sun, return in february.  their  effects  would
be  maximum  between about february 11 and 14.  there have been
no double peak months since last july, an exceptionally  active
month  for  so  late  in  the  solar  cycle.  vagaries in radio
propagation, while frustrating at times, are all  part  of  our
great  game.   they  may  be  more  readily apparent in the low
sunspot years, when activity on normally busy bands falls  off.
the  author  of these bulletins welcomes reports of propagation
events that do not seem to fit normal patterns.  send  them  to
ed  tilton,  w1hdq, po box 5529, spring hill, fl 33526.  please
enclose an sase if a reply is wanted.

there were no visible sunspots for the week january 23  to  29.
ar