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From: janw@inmet.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Orphaned Response
Message-ID: <7800967@inmet.UUCP>
Date: Sun, 2-Feb-86 14:47:00 EST
Article-I.D.: inmet.7800967
Posted: Sun Feb  2 14:47:00 1986
Date-Received: Thu, 6-Feb-86 21:43:22 EST
References: <573@qantel.UUCP>
Lines: 45
Nf-ID: #R:qantel:-57300:inmet:7800967:177600:2014
Nf-From: inmet!janw    Feb  2 14:47:00 1986


[Gabor Fencsik {ihnp4,dual,lll-crg,hplabs}!qantel!gabor]

Your article on Hungarian elections was extremely enlightening to
me; and the problem of the evolution of Communist states is
vitally important. So can you elaborate a bit?

>I see Hungary as a dictatorship in an advanced state of decomposition.

What is it that ails them (more than usual) ? Economics ? Malaise ? Loss
of credibility ? Parallel economy, and independent human life in
general ? Why can't they just go on vacillating, loosening and
tightening the reins, forever ?

>The elections may be a step toward democracy or they may be a step
>toward the abyss: I don't pretend to know.

The first would require a change in Russia  to  be  viable.  What
kind  of  an  abyss  ?  1956 again ? Economic slump ? (But that's
hardly an abyss). On both horns of your dilemma, aren't there ri-
gid constraints to how far change can go ?

>The intentions of those 
>engineering this show, as far as I can judge them, have nothing to do
>with democracy as you or I understand the word. 

*Show* rings true. But why did they choose this kind of show ?
Is there a genuine desire for democracy (rather than simply being
treated well) in any part of the people ?

> "One intellectual excitement has been denied me. Men wiser and more learned
>  than I have discerned in history a plot, a rhythm, a predetermined pattern.
>  These harmonies are concealed from me. I can see only one emergency
>  following upon another as wave follows wave ... "

"Don't know" is always a safe answer, as  well  as  humble.  I've
read  Fisher's  history,  but  I've learned more from people who
venture a unifying hypothesis, who dare to see a pattern, at  the
risk  of  being  wrong.   Not necessarily on the scale of Marx or
Toynbee ...  E.g., your "dictatorship in  an  advanced  state  of
decomposition"  is  such a pattern, and helps you see events in a
meaningful way; there's a whole lot of hidden assumptions in this
phrase - but the risk is worth taking.

		Jan Wasilewsky