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From: desj@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU (David desJardins)
Newsgroups: net.rec.bridge
Subject: Re: minor play problem (probabilities)
Message-ID: <11592@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU>
Date: Wed, 29-Jan-86 03:31:32 EST
Article-I.D.: ucbvax.11592
Posted: Wed Jan 29 03:31:32 1986
Date-Received: Thu, 30-Jan-86 05:45:45 EST
References: <118@aplcen.UUCP> <11492@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU>
Sender: usenet@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU
Reply-To: desj@brahms.UUCP (David desJardins)
Distribution: net
Organization: University of California, Berkeley
Lines: 33
Summary: Missed a 100% line...

In article <11492@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU> I write:
>   One point in the play of this hand may be of further interest, as it
>illustrates a simple but valuable application of bridge probabilities.

Actually what it illustrates is that too much calculating can prevent
you from looking closely enough at the hand...

>After the club ruff, KA of spades, LHO showing out, J of clubs pitching a
>heart, club ruffed small by RHO and overruffed, diamond to the ace, club
>ruffed with the QS while you pitch a heart, heart return ruffed in your
>hand, the position will be as follows:
>
>		     W: --
>			Q
>			J9
>			64
>
>		     E: JT
>			--
>			Q8x
>			--
>
>The question now is how to play the diamond suit for one loser.  Obviously
>there are two possibilities, small to the J or small to the 9.
> (long analysis of probabilities)

   Unfortunately I seem to have gone astray at the "Obviously"; the 100%
line is to lay down the QD.  This loses only if one hand holds KTxx (and
ducks), which is not possible since we are assuming that RHO holds the KD.
   Does the fact that no one pointed this out to me mean that nobody saw
it, or that nobody is reading this stuff anyway?

   -- David desJardins