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From: mcgeer%ji@UCBVAX.BERKELEY.EDU (Rick McGeer)
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: Re: Future of the Space Program
Message-ID: <8601292357.AA21194@ji.berkeley.edu>
Date: Wed, 29-Jan-86 18:57:58 EST
Article-I.D.: ji.8601292357.AA21194
Posted: Wed Jan 29 18:57:58 1986
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>
>>  - What kind of escape mechanism (if any) does the shuttle have for the crew?
>
>At that point, the only escape mechanism was to detach the orbiter from
>the fuel tank and hope it doesn't blow up before you get away.  I'll
>add that if they had been able to get away but had to ditch in the ocean
>they still would probably have died; the shuttle decelerates from 190
>knots to zero in 100 yards when ditched and the TDRS would probably have
>smashed through the cabin.

That escape mechanism would only have worked if the external tank exploded
first.  As far as I know, it's pretty much even money that an internal
tank went.

>
>> - Might this redirect (to some extent) the focus of the manned space
>> program away from the shuttle (large, complex) back toward simpler or
>> alternative launch systems?
>
>It will certainly deflect satellite launching back to unmanned
>expendable vehicles (mainly Ariane).  The disaster has probably soured
>DOD permanently on the shuttle, so DOD may push for a small TAV.
>France will go ahead with Hermes, which is smaller and simpler,
>consisting of a small spaceplane on top of an Ariane-5 launcher.

	Couple of points.  First, the Planetary Scientists have already been
banging away on getting rid of manned spaceflight (the argument runs: "neither
our missions nor satellite launches require men, hence no worthwhile missions
require men, hence we should use only unmanned spaceflight"; the breathtaking
arrogance of this has always amazed me).  Second, at least one Pentagon
official said yesterday that that DoD launches from Vandenberg would probably
resume *sooner* than Kennedy's civilian launches, since (I presume) the USAF
has a higher risk tolerance than NASA.

					-- Rick.