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From: eugene@ames.UUCP (Eugene Miya)
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: Re: Oh My God
Message-ID: <1375@ames.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 29-Jan-86 16:56:10 EST
Article-I.D.: ames.1375
Posted: Wed Jan 29 16:56:10 1986
Date-Received: Sat, 1-Feb-86 07:24:19 EST
References: <8601281921.AA01471@s1-b.arpa>
Organization: NASA-Ames Research Center, Mtn. View, CA
Lines: 68

Officially we have a news blackout.  The comments are my observations

Paul Dietz writes:
> What will happen next?  Some predictions:
> 
> The shuttle program is in very serious trouble, and stands a good
> chance of being transfered to the military or being cancelled entirely.

Serious trouble, yes.  Cancelled, probably not. Military transfer?
This has been suggested in the past.  I doubt it.  I suggest you are
not familiar with the dynamics of civilian and military space and
aeronautics.  The military is not interested in civilian transport
(FAA not equiped), nor planetary space, not civilian communications
[*some generalization on this latter].

> Work will start immediately on a replacement vehicle, probably a smaller
> scramjet-based TAV.
> The Europeans will go ahead with Hermes and HOTOL.

They would regardless.  All in progress.  Give the European and us some
credit.

> The space station will be postponed or suspended pending the development
> of a replacement vehicle.  NASA may feel compelled to invest heavily
> in space robotics.

Station: probably some delay, measured in years.  I won't specuate on length,
but we have estimates.  We are "investing" in robotics right now.

> NASA will probably survive, unless it comes out that NASA has been
> hushing up internal uneasiness about shuttle reliability.  In that case
> the civilian space program is very likely dead.

Gee, bury us before we are dead.
> What a nightmare.
Agreed.

> From: Rem@IMSSS
> In addition to obvious badness:
>  (1) TDRS lost, so we won't be having the around-the-clock tracking of
>    space missions like we were hoping to have;
>  (2) Our STS capacity is now down to 60%. Originally we needed 5 orbiters,
>    but the budget was cut and we had only 4, now we have only 3.
> 
> One minor good point:
>  At least it didn't happen on the pad where the pad would have been destroyed
>    preventing further launches. However this may be moot if they spend two
>    years analyzing everything before doing anything.

Overall a good analysis [payload, pad, etc.]. 3,4,5, 60%,75%, these are
all just numbers.  Estimates are unclear of real need.  TDRSS is quite
serious to NASA, we have one  [TDRSS-C] more to go.  Galileo was scheduled for 
Challenger.  They are figuring a year delay [spoke to JPL friends
yesterday, but maybe Doug, Ron, or Steve can say more.]  No in orbit
Halley observations [The Kuiper is flying at 41K feet].

Generally at Ames, there is a state of depression in some of the staff.
Business is continuing in many quarters are usual.  Please keep the
"conspiracy theories" down.  We are in the dark like everybody else.
We have no "inside" information.  Please understand that NASA has
some information not for immediate release, but they want to verify
leads, check plans, and reschedule things.  Rumors only serve to feed
vultures.

--eugene miya
  NASA Ames Research Center
  {hplabs,ihnp4,dual,hao,decwrl,allegra}!ames!aurora!eugene
  eugene@ames-nas.ARPA