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From: al@vger.UUCP ( Informatix)
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: Re: 5 YEARS TO REPLACE ORBITER?
Message-ID: <323@vger.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 31-Jan-86 04:06:46 EST
Article-I.D.: vger.323
Posted: Fri Jan 31 04:06:46 1986
Date-Received: Sat, 1-Feb-86 21:01:35 EST
References: <8601300732.AA03494@s1-b.arpa>
Organization: UC Santa Cruz, CIS Dept.
Lines: 32
Summary: Aerospace construction realities make for long lead times.

In article <8601300732.AA03494@s1-b.arpa>, REM@IMSSS (Robert Elton Maas, this host known locally only) writes:
> Criminey! Tonight on the news they said it would cost $2E9 and take 5
> years to make one (1) new STS orbiter to replace Challanger. I would
> think that since they already know how to build one (learned 1975-81)
> and how to test them (learned 1979-1985), they could just hire a lot
> of additional manpower and put work on a 2-hour shift and do all the
> tasks in parallel from specs already worked out, using computerized
> PERT charts to find bottlenecks, and get all the parts for another
> orbiter built in a year and assembled&tested in another year.

There are several problems with speeding up the process much, having to
do with the nature of building an orbiter and the nature of the aerospace
business.

* Hiring a lot of manpower won't necessarily speed things up.  Very few 
people in the unemployment line know anything about building shuttles, and
it's a very complex operation.  Training is a major issue.

* Government procurement takes a minimum of 3 months to buy ANYTHING costing
more than a few hundred dollars.  Items worth more than a few thousand generally
take 6 months to a year, and 18 months is not unheard of.  This is for
stuff that you just get off the shelf.  You can imagine the paperwork 
involved in procuring a shuttle - completely independent of the actual
construction work.  I would guess two to three years of PURE PROCUREMENT
DELAY in getting another shuttle.  After working as a contractor for NASA
for almost 7 years, I know of what I speak.

* Major aerospace corporations such as Rockwell aren't very efficient.  
Everything takes a long time and a lot of money - a lot more than it should,
but nobody but Rockwell could, realistically, build a new orbiter.  Thus,
the way Rockwell does things is the way any replacement orbiter would
be built and that fact must be factored into the time needed.