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From: cb@MITRE-BEDFORD.ARPA (Christopher Byrnes)
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: Re: Cost of a replacement shuttle
Message-ID: <8602031803.AA20116@mitre-bedford.ARPA>
Date: Mon, 3-Feb-86 13:03:48 EST
Article-I.D.: mitre-be.8602031803.AA20116
Posted: Mon Feb  3 13:03:48 1986
Date-Received: Wed, 5-Feb-86 02:40:00 EST
References: <8602011115.AA02836@s1-b.arpa>
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Organization: The MITRE Corp., Bedford, MA
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  I've heard reports that it will cost about $2 billion to restart the
Shuttle Orbiter production line to build a replacement for Challenger.
Anyone have any figures on how much it would cost to reopen the
production line and build several new shuttles?  Even if there is
never another tragedy, the three remaining shuttles are bound to need
overhauls, etc. in the years to come.  That reduces the present
available fleet of three to even less for perhaps long periods, which
may be unacceptable to government and commercial users.

  At various times over the years there have been reports of interest
in commercially owned shuttles.  Costs and the now hightened
realization of possible lost may have scared some of these people
away.  But no space delivery system (that includes Ariane,
conventional rockets, etc.) is 100% failure-proof.  If NASA decides
that it is in the national interest to reopen the production line,
might there be commercial interests willing to buy one or more
orbiters at less than the quoted $2 billion price tag?  Any new
shuttle may not be ready until after 1990.  Do people still believe
that the market of the 1990's will be so large (with space stations,
very large communications satellites, etc.) that three shuttles and
existing technology expendable booters can service it?

					Christopher Byrnes

					cb@Mitre-Bedford.ARPA
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