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From: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams)
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: Re: Oh My God
Message-ID: <1127@mmintl.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 31-Jan-86 18:41:47 EST
Article-I.D.: mmintl.1127
Posted: Fri Jan 31 18:41:47 1986
Date-Received: Fri, 7-Feb-86 20:16:59 EST
References: <8601281921.AA01471@s1-b.arpa>
Reply-To: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams)
Organization: Multimate International, E. Hartford, CT
Lines: 38

In article <8601281921.AA01471@s1-b.arpa> dietz@SLB-DOLL.CSNET (Paul Dietz) writes:
>What will happen next?  Some predictions:
>
>The shuttle program is in very serious trouble, and stands a good
>chance of being transfered to the military or being cancelled entirely.
>Work will start immediately on a replacement vehicle, probably a smaller
>scramjet-based TAV.  The Europeans will go ahead with Hermes and HOTOL.
>The space station will be postponed or suspended pending the development
>of a replacement vehicle.  NASA may feel compelled to invest heavily
>in space robotics.
>
>NASA will probably survive, unless it comes out that NASA has been
>hushing up internal uneasiness about shuttle reliability.  In that case
>the civilian space program is very likely dead.
>
>What a nightmare.

I don't want to downplay the tragedy, which is very real, but there is a
good chance that the U.S. space program will come out this stronger, not
weaker.

First of all, up till now, the astronauts have always seemed to be sort of
fake heros.  While those who examined the risks realized that they were
always substantial, NASA's (essentially) perfect record led to a public
perception that the risks were really rather minor.  Well, now everybody
knows better.  Future astronauts, and even past astronauts, will be
perceived as the heros they are.

I expect there will also be a call to build not one new shuttle, but two.
There was some movement to build a fifth shuttle as a "spare" even before
this happened.  As long as the shuttle program continues, the arguments
for this are stronger than ever.  And I think the program will continue;
the arguments for it are strong enough to overcome the level of risk
associated with it; that level of risk is not new, and has always been
appreciated by space scientists and astronauts.

Frank Adams                           ihpn4!philabs!pwa-b!mmintl!franka
Multimate International    52 Oakland Ave North    E. Hartford, CT 06108