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From: dietz@SLB-DOLL.CSNET (Paul Dietz)
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: Future of Space Program
Message-ID: <8602091610.AA10226@s1-b.arpa>
Date: Sun, 9-Feb-86 09:59:15 EST
Article-I.D.: s1-b.8602091610.AA10226
Posted: Sun Feb  9 09:59:15 1986
Date-Received: Tue, 11-Feb-86 07:09:58 EST
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The Feb. 10 issue of Newsweek mentions Thomas Paine (chairman of the 
National Commission on Space).  He was going to mail the first draft
of the commission's report to the White House on the day of the
disaster.  According to Newsweek, the report would have recommended
that NASA build an unmanned cargo launcher capable of lifting payload
into orbit at $200/lb (is this the much discussed Heavy Lift Vehicle?)
and work on either a second generation shuttle or a transatmospheric
vehicle, with a five year competition between the systems at the
beginning of development (the winner comes on line around 2000).
The shuttle disaster may modify these plans; the commission may
recommend speeding the development of the new launchers (clap clap).

Teleoperators: I'm still convinced teleoperators are going to be vital
for high orbit and lunar applications, but their superiority is debatable
(or dubious) for some low orbit applications (especially those that can
be performed inside a space station).  I'm also convinced that using men
in space doesn't make much sense until launch costs are reduced (except to
practice for the day when they are reduced).  I think the shuttle arm
and experience on earth with unmanned submarines demonstrates
that for *some applications* teleoperators are superior, and my gut
feeling is that many or most applications in space will be of this type.
Just how many is something I have to admit I can't answer now. 

Space station:  If and when that $200/lb launcher gets going space
manufacturing is really going to start making sense. Should
construction of the space station be delayed until this cheap launcher
is available, or should the full station be built with the
shuttle?  More likely (and sensible) is to build a small prototype
station with the shuttle to get our feet wet, then expand it when the
cheap launcher comes on line.