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From: afb@pucc-i (Michael Lewis)
Newsgroups: net.sport.hoops
Subject: The NBA Finals...
Message-ID: <1293@pucc-i>
Date: Wed, 12-Feb-86 11:45:00 EST
Article-I.D.: pucc-i.1293
Posted: Wed Feb 12 11:45:00 1986
Date-Received: Fri, 14-Feb-86 01:29:15 EST
Organization: Purdue University Computing Center
Lines: 51
Keywords: Lakers, Kareem


    I wouldn't count on there being some different teams in the finals this 
year...much as I'd like to see Milwaukee pull off another 4-0 sweep of the
Celtics.  Randy Breuer is not an NBA-final caliber center, ditto for Lister
and *Mokeski*.

    Then there's Houston, the upstarts of the West.  They have as good a front
line as any in the NBA.  If their backcourt of Lewis Lloyd and John Lucas was
up to that standard, then we'd be talking dynasty.  But against the Lakers'
army of talented guards, one of whom is (arguably) the best guard to come along
since West and Robertson, they'll fall short.  My feeling is reinforced by the
way Kareem took Akeem to school the last time they played (something around 40
points, I believe).

    Denver is a fine team, with as good a pair of forwards as there are in the
league, but they lack the depth to hang with the Lakers.  Houston also has this
problem.

    In the East, there are Milwaukee and Philadelphia who could challenge for
a spot in the finals.  Milwaukee, despite having 2 of the very best all-around
players in the league in Pressey and Moncrief and a true offensive force in 
Terry Cummings, are short on frontcourt depth.  If they could have picked up
Joe Barry Carroll, they would be going to the finals.

    Philadelphia is a very good team, and they are on a serious tear right now.
Playing Erving at guard, which is only possible because Maurice Cheeks is one
of the top 5 or so point guards, is opening up some new possibilities for them.
However, they have one glaring weakness when matched up with the Celtics; they
have Barkley, at 6'6", playing *power* forward, with little more size backing
him up.  McHale can shoot and rebound over him all day.  Also, for some reason
Robert Parish seems to match up well against Malone (in much the same way as
Malone matches up well against Kareem...).

    So now the matchup is set: LA vs. Boston, with Boston probably having the
home-court advantage.  A lot of what happens will depend on what kind of shape
Bird's battered body is in.  Let's face it, as good as Larry is on Offense and
at being at the right place on D, he really isn't very good at guarding *his*
man one-on-one, although he usually manages to keep his man off the boards.
So does he guard Worthy?  Worthy doesn't rebound much, and he's lightning 
quick.  I think that Bird must guard Rambis.  McHale is an outstanding player
but is not quick enough to prevent Worthy from lighting him up, like last year.
The bottom line is:

   If (Kareem + Worthy) = (Bird + McHale + Parish) then the Lakers win.

    That's oversimplifying things a bit, but I think that's the gist of it.
Both teams improved themselves about equally with the acquisitions of Lucas
and Walton, but they will have a bigger impact on Boston than LA, I think.

    My prediction: Lakers in 7, one of the greatest championship series of all
    time.