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From: tedrick@ernie.berkeley.edu.BERKELEY.EDU (Tom Tedrick)
Newsgroups: net.crypt,net.politics
Subject: Re: Enigma and the Eastern Front again
Message-ID: <11941@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU>
Date: Thu, 20-Feb-86 06:35:44 EST
Article-I.D.: ucbvax.11941
Posted: Thu Feb 20 06:35:44 1986
Date-Received: Fri, 21-Feb-86 07:31:07 EST
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Reply-To: tedrick@ernie.berkeley.edu.UUCP (Tom Tedrick)
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Xref: watmath net.crypt:554 net.politics:13520

>The only strategic victory directly attributed to ULTRA is the Battle of
>the Atlantic.  Like any source of good intelligence ULTRA was a strategic
>weapon: it had a 'multiplier' effect on operational and tactical forces.
>While it often played a crucial role it was seldom indispensable.  In
>the battle against the U-boat blockade, however, ULTRA was THE deciding
>factor until the advent of HF/DF.

I claim that ULTRA was decisive (ie indispensable) in North Africa,
the Battle of Britain, and on the Eastern Front.

Also, I think the "multiplier" paradigm is misleading. 

>Even if (as can at least be inferred from Philby's memoirs if nothing
>else) the Soviets had high level access to the fruits of English
>cryptanalysis it is questionable what value Stalin placed on this
>intelligence or whether it was indispensable to the Russian victory.
>Without having studied the matter, offhand I'd say it wasn't of much
>value to Stalin and the Russians could have done without it.	

My view is different.  I think the information the Soviets obtained
was indispensible.  Hope I've made my view clear (I'll watch for flames :-)
I've spent an enormous amount of time trying to dig out
the truth of this matter.

>In that case, the only overiding effect of ULTRA on the Eastern Front
>was keeping England in the war.  Given that the Russians defeated the
>Germans almost single-handedly, did the 'western' Allies make that much
>of a difference?  Would the Russians have won anyway?

Well, I agree that the campaign in the East was very severe, but
not that the Russians defeated the Germans almost single-handedly.
If Germany had not had to fight anyone but Russia, and the Russians
had not had information from Enigma sources, I claim that
Russia would not have been able to defeat Germany. It might 
have been a stalemate, though.

Also, up until the point when Atomic weapons came into play, I
claim that were it not for ULTRA Germany could have held her
own against all the Allies.

Thanks very much for posting your article.

   -Tom
    tedrick@ernie.berkely.edu