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From: cb@MITRE-BEDFORD.ARPA (Christopher Byrnes)
Newsgroups: net.railroad
Subject: Re: AMTRAK funding.
Message-ID: <1054@brl-smoke.ARPA>
Date: Tue, 18-Feb-86 10:32:14 EST
Article-I.D.: brl-smok.1054
Posted: Tue Feb 18 10:32:14 1986
Date-Received: Wed, 19-Feb-86 20:33:00 EST
Sender: news@brl-smoke.ARPA
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  I wouldn't be too sure about Greyhound, Trailways or the other bus
companies being able to pick up all the NEC traffic generated from the
shutdown of Amtrak.  For a variety of factors such as cheap
competitors, aging facilities and high fixed overhead (sound
familiar?), bus companies have been losing market share over the last
few years.  Amtrak has held its (slim) share, but all those new cheap
airlines are just killing large bus companies.  Both Greyhound and
Trailways are shedding unprofitable routes (many in the Northeast
where many of the airlines such as Peoples Express operate.  The bus
companies are also hurt by loss of subsidies (on some rural routes)
and high taxes on their downtown terminals.  In some cases the dropped
routes are being picked up by small bus companies (sounds like a
repeat of short-line railroads) but some communities have lost all bus
service.

  With bus companies shrinking as an alternative mode of transit on
high density routes such as the NEC or LA-SD, I think the fear of
(further) traffic overload if Amtrak shuts down is justified.  I don't
know what the loading factors are on the airlines, but I doubt they
can pick up the extra traffic (especially at peak travel times).
Besides, the highways are crowded enough with the existing cars and
buses.  I wonder what the economic costs are of making thousands of
people (and their cars) spend an extra few minutes waiting in traffic.

					Christopher Byrnes

					cb@Mitre-Bedford.ARPA
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