Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84; site 3comvax.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!bellcore!decvax!ittatc!dcdwest!sdcsvax!ucbvax!hplabs!oliveb!3comvax!michaelm
From: michaelm@3comvax.UUCP (Michael McNeil)
Newsgroups: net.space,net.columbia
Subject: Re: Why does everyone want to leave this planet?
Message-ID: <441@3comvax.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 7-Mar-86 16:38:07 EST
Article-I.D.: 3comvax.441
Posted: Fri Mar  7 16:38:07 1986
Date-Received: Mon, 10-Mar-86 00:14:07 EST
References: <671@rti-sel.UUCP> <172@jc3b21.UUCP>
Reply-To: michaelm@3comvax.UUCP (Michael McNeil)
Organization: 3Com Corp; Mountain View, CA
Lines: 61
Xref: watmath net.space:6325 net.columbia:2611

In article <172@jc3b21.UUCP> fgd3@jc3b21.UUCP (Fabbian G. Dufoe) writes:
>
>     I am reminded of the story (probably apocryphal) of the man who, in
>the 1930s, recognized the imminence of a global war.  A peaceful man, he
>wanted no part of it.  After long and careful study he identified a place
>of no strategic importance to anyone.  He packed his bags and moved to
>Guadalcanal.
>
>     Emigrating to a quiet asteroid won't keep you safe from the next war.
>Neither will the emigration to space of the "adventurous" allow those who
>remain behind to live in peace.  Given the power of our present weapons we
>cannot hope to contain belligerence--we must prevent it.

I've heard that story too -- it's a good one.  However, the point
is not whether any given *individual* would be absolutely, or even
relatively, safe out in space in the event of general war, but that
it's unlikely that *everyone* would be exterminated by a major war
if people lived dispersed throughout space as well as on Earth.  

I agree that it's highly desirable to "prevent" belligerence -- but
do you have a proposal that's guaranteed to *work*?  If not, you're
simply spouting platitudes.  Sure, preventing belligerence is a fine
idea -- we just have absolutely no idea how to accomplish it.  While
you talk, what's to prevent one of the buttons around the world from
being pushed?  Nothing, that's what.  And research on nuclear winter
indicates we may have inadvertently constructed a doomsday machine!  
If the button is ever pushed, there's a very real danger that *all
life on Earth* would be destroyed in the worldwide conflagration.  

Many people seem to think it would somehow *increase* the chances of
general war if people were living out in space and therefore "safe."  
Apparently -- as I understand this reasoning -- Earth people would be
only too willing to commit suicide themselves if they knew that people
out in space might survive.  I consider this most unlikely.  If Earth
wants to commit suicide, it will do so, regardless of the existence of
space colonies.  For example, it's possible, perhaps even probable,
that Iraq would have used nuclear weapons by now in its war with Iran
if it possessed them.  Is it likely the existence of settlements in
space would have influenced Iraq's decision to use them?  I think not.  

We humans are the caretakers of the results of 4 billion years of
evolutionary history of life on Earth.  The danger to that huge
investment of time and blood -- perhaps the only life in the
universe -- is too great for us to depend on platitudes, and this
extreme danger is likely to persist indefinitely into the future.  
I'd like us to have more baskets to put our eggs in -- rather than
depending on some magical transformation of human nature to occur.  
(Then, and in parallel, let's work on the required transformations!)  

-- 

Michael McNeil
3Com Corporation     "All disclaimers including this one apply"
(415) 960-9367
..!ucbvax!hplabs!oliveb!3comvax!michaelm

	There are two futures, the future of desire and the future of
	fate, and man's reason has never learnt to separate them.  
		J. Desmond Bernal, 1929, *The World, the Flesh
		and the Devil: An Enquiry into the Three Enemies
		of the Rational Soul*