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From: weemba@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU (Matthew P. Wiener)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: "More is Better" or Let's Blow up the Sun RE to Guy
Message-ID: <12425@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU>
Date: Sun, 16-Mar-86 03:46:30 EST
Article-I.D.: ucbvax.12425
Posted: Sun Mar 16 03:46:30 1986
Date-Received: Mon, 17-Mar-86 22:29:05 EST
References: <373@ihnet.UUCP> <711@mtuxn.UUCP> <377@ihnet.UUCP> <719@mtuxn.UUCP> <1039@whuxl.UUCP>
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Reply-To: weemba@brahms.UUCP (Matthew P. Wiener)
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In article <1039@whuxl.UUCP> orb@whuxl.UUCP (SEVENER) writes:
>So what does that *mean* Guy?  Several experts in the field of
>nuclear weapons have said that about *300* nuclear weapons is
>enough to totally destroy either the USSR or the US. Indeed former
>Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara estimated that 100 nuclear weapons
>of no more than 50 kilotons each would suffice as a deterrent because
>it would destroy 25% of Soviet population and 50% of Soviet industrial
>capacity. (This is cited in "Arsenal of Democracy" by Tom Gervasi, p.24)

DoD does offer some sort of rationale for the overkill.  First, they have
the triad theory, requiring enough weaponry to waste the Soviet Union on
land, sea and on air.  There's a factor of three for you.  Then DoD thinks
that maybe only half of those with their finger on the button will actually
follow orders.  Another factor of two.  Then DoD worries about missiles
malfunctioning at all sorts of places from silo to target.  That's another
factor of classified size.  Then DoD worries about all those missiles hitting
the wrong target.  Those don't count, so DoD needs more missiles to make up
for them.  And then there's a factor of two to twenty to allow us to respond
to a successful Soviet first strike, the bastards.  And finally, DoD probably
just throws in a factor of two or so, what the hell, just to be safe.

ucbvax!brahms!weemba	Matthew P Wiener/UCB Math Dept/Berkeley CA 94720