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From: KFL@MC.LCS.MIT.EDU ("Keith F. Lynch")
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: (none)
Message-ID: <[MC.LCS.MIT.EDU].844266.860309.KFL>
Date: Sun, 9-Mar-86 18:41:11 EST
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Posted: Sun Mar  9 18:41:11 1986
Date-Received: Wed, 12-Mar-86 03:35:30 EST
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    From: jon@csvax.caltech.edu

    How long should we keep up this 2% growth rate?

    Year    Population	    Area (sq. mi)   Area needed / Area of the Earth
			    needed @
    			    10 acres/person
    -----   -------------   --------------- -------------------------------
       0    4e+09	    6.25e+07	    0.310849
     100    2.89786e+10     4.5279e+08	    2.25199
     200    2.0994e+11	    3.28031e+09     16.3149
     300    1.52094e+12     2.37647e+10     118.196
     ...

  If we define the present population density of Hong Kong, 12,000
people per square mile, as the limit, then the world can support about
200 times the population you estimate.  We don't run into trouble for
300 years.  This just shows that we should have many large space
colonies operating by then if we want population to be able to
continue to grow at this rate.
  As for right now, the world is mostly underpopulated.  I agree that
unless birth rates decrease or death rates increase, this will not
remain the case for more than another century or so.
  I don't think the population is going to increase at 2% forever.  It
does tend to be lower in wealthier countries.  It should drop
everywhere once more people in more countries reach a western standard
of wealth.
  I *DO* think it should always remain a matter of personal choice.
If people do not like to live around highly populated areas, why is
it that most people tend to clump into heavily populated cities,
rather than distributing themselves fairly evenly across the world?

								...Keith