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From: bzs@bu-cs.UUCP (Barry Shein)
Newsgroups: net.decus,net.unix
Subject: Re: Favorite operating systems query
Message-ID: <882@bu-cs.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 2-Jul-86 21:58:05 EDT
Article-I.D.: bu-cs.882
Posted: Wed Jul  2 21:58:05 1986
Date-Received: Fri, 4-Jul-86 08:46:40 EDT
Organization: Boston Univ Comp. Sci.
Lines: 76
Xref: watmath net.decus:386 net.unix:8509


>>In article <828@bu-cs.UUCP> bzs@bu-cs.UUCP (Barry Shein) writes:
>>
>>I think this discussion borders on useless simply because it is clear
>>the correspondants have almost exactly no real information and every
>>intent to misrepresent what little they have. Have fun. By the time
>>the correspondants settle down VMS will have gone the way of TOPS-20.
>>
>From: rdz@cci632.UUCP (Robert D. Zarcone)
>I MAY BE WRONG, but can you name me a MAJOR (Fortune 500) manufacturer
>besides AT&T that offers UNIX as their only operating system?  If I am
>right, you will find they offer UNIX as an alternative OS.  Your statement
>would have us believe that the world's second largest manufacturer of
>computers can't compete with just a proprietary OS.  Would you also have
>us believe that IBM is doomed if they don't drop their proprietary OS's
>and convert to UNIX?  If so, please contact me concerning this bridge in
>NYC I know about. :-)

You're not utterly wrong, but picking some holes reveals some interesting
things:

1. Sperry seems to be moving strongly towards only offering UNIX and
dropping their other lines. It's hard to predict whether this will
actually happen. I think they are 'major' in dollars.

2. I am not sure what the "MAJOR (Fortune 500)" is meant to prove.
IBM is a $45 billion dollar company, ATT is about the same, DEC is
a $7 billion dollar company (around 1/7th the size of either.)
If I used your reasoning I would either be using IBM mainframe
systems or UNIX (hey, ya know what, that's exactly what I do!)

3. DEC is no longer the 2nd largest manufacturer (and as I pointed
out, they were a distant second), Burroughs-Sperry is, I think DEC
was recently pegged as fourth (not sure who three is, if the WSJ
meant Burroughs-Sperry as 2 and 3 then they're stupid, but at best
DEC has fallen to number 3.)

4. I didn't say they can't compete, I meant they won't want to.
They'll be too afraid of falling behind in the MIPs/$$ wars with
the VAX architecture and, fanatics aside, I am very skeptical
that they will ever port VMS to something other than a VAX. Exactly
what made it their pride and joy (squeezing every cycle out of a
VAX) will also be it's demise.

Remember, if DEC is to survive they had better make these decisions
BEFORE they start failing to compete or it will be too late.

5. At any rate (why did I start numbering these things?) to compare
DEC to IBM is very questionable. DEC is in the market, IBM *is* the
market. DEC has competitors, it's still not clear that IBM has any,
maybe ATT someday (hell, maybe DEC **SOMEDAY**, not today, not in
terms of sales.) Although DEC is number three (I don't care, number
two, let's go back a few months) there are several companies well
positioned to give them some stiff competition (Burroughs-Sperry, ATT,
Honeywell, CDC, Data General, Prime, Harris, Wang [who I hear is going
heavily UNIX], others, probably more in the near future [I'd put my
money on SUN in 2-3 years.]) See, whereas none of these companies
really competes with IBM they constantly go head-on with DEC,
especially in large contract bids.

Note also that both IBM and (to some extent) DEC got strongly
behind their UNIX products when NSA chose ATT for a $1B procurement
which required UNIX and TCP/IP (note that ATT rushed out a TCP/IP
product also...) IBM dropped out early and DEC was just beat in
the last heat.

Now, ain't none of them gonna resist the Pentagon's desires (which
NSA was reflecting in this contract.) You could draw an analogy
with ADA and say we should therefore all use ADA, but I don't
see that kind of $$ yet behind ADA, and besides, they'll use ADA
on UNIX, it's not being promoted for general systems programming.

No, IBM won't drop MVS in the near future, DEC will drop VMS
(I predict 2-3 years, at least as a major product.)

	-Barry Shein, Boston University