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From: carnes@gargoyle.UUCP (Richard Carnes)
Newsgroups: net.sci,net.politics
Subject: Re: Population control
Message-ID: <556@gargoyle.UUCP>
Date: Sat, 30-Aug-86 22:02:25 EDT
Article-I.D.: gargoyle.556
Posted: Sat Aug 30 22:02:25 1986
Date-Received: Mon, 1-Sep-86 01:23:04 EDT
References: <543@gargoyle.UUCP> <26500045@inmet>
Reply-To: carnes@gargoyle.UUCP (Richard Carnes)
Organization: U. of Chicago, Computer Science Dept.
Lines: 35
Xref: watmath net.sci:1566 net.politics:18827

[Jan Wasilewsky]
>All these were widely predicted in the 60's for the 70's and the
>80's [and did not come to pass].

Again I would ask Jan to cite chapter and verse, explain what was
predicted and what actually happened, and explain why some mistaken
predictions invalidate all such predictions.

>The above is full of "potential", "could" and "would".  One could
>just  as  easily  draw  a scenario in which too *few* people would
>prove perilous. E.g., a new virus  killing  off  everyone  but
>bearers  of  a  rare  immunity  trait.  The more people, the more
>chance that a viable remnant survives.

But the more people, the greater the chance of a virulent pandemic in
the first place.  The high population density, unsanitary conditions,
malnutrition (which reduces resistance to disease), and ecosystem
degradation associated with overpopulation provide a fertile medium
for the spread of infectious diseases.  Our ancestors survived for
millions of years (which saw extreme climatic changes) at population
levels far lower than the present 5 billion (probably much less than
1 million, if memory serves).  I don't know if there has been any
species whose extinction was primarily due to infectious disease.

The genetic variability of the human population is much less
important in the modern control of infectious disease than the
genetic library found in other species.  Many medicines have been
developed from other species, some examples being quinine,
penicillin, streptomycin, tetracycline, and cytarabine.  We have
barely begun to tap the potential of other species to provide medical
benefits -- a strong argument in favor of species and ecosystem
preservation (especially in tropical forests), which in turn is a
strong argument in favor of human population control.

Richard Carnes