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From: janw@inmet.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.sci
Subject: Re: Population control & Freedom
Message-ID: <1794@curly.ucla-cs.ARPA>
Date: Mon, 29-Sep-86 16:29:45 EDT
Article-I.D.: curly.1794
Posted: Mon Sep 29 16:29:45 1986
Date-Received: Sat, 4-Oct-86 06:00:07 EDT
References: <564@gargoyle.UUCP>
Organization: UCLA CS Department
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Nf-From: inmet.UUCP!janw    Sep 28 23:32:00 1986


> = [carnes@gargoyle.UUCP ]

This goes under a wrong title: the problem is unrelated to
population control.

>>The worst thing that can happen -- will happen [in the 1980s] -- is
>>not energy depletion, economic collapse, limited nuclear war, or
>>conquest by a totalitarian government.  As terrible as these
>>catastrophes would be for us, they can be repaired within a few
>>generations.  The one process ongoing in the 1980s that will take
>>millions of years to correct is the loss of genetic and species
>>diversity by the destruction of natural habitats.  This is the folly
>>our descendants are least likely to forgive us.  --Edward O. Wilson,
>>*Harvard Magazine*, Jan.-Feb. 1980

>>Tosh:  the other disasters he mentions are worse, and less rever-
>>sible.  Genetic diversity can be increased very fast by creating
>>*artificial* habitats, by genetic engineering and cross-breeding.

>Utter nonsense.  Jan, please provide one shred of scientific support
>for your claims.  

Scientific ? Neither my statements nor Wilson's  were *scientific*.
He  speaks,  e.g.,  of  reversibility of global totalitarianism -
this is not only outside *his* science,  but  *any*  science.  He
also  speaks  of  a  future "millions of years" ahead - a future,
mind you, with a human factor in it. No one can scientifically
know it. My assertions I'll discuss below.

>(This means: document your statements by references to  a  scien-
>tific  author  or  journal  with authority to speak in this area,
>e.g., E.O. Wilson.

As I've shown above, no one has a scientific authority  to  speak
"in  this area". But I can justify my statements without stooping
to an argument from authority.

>Quotes from *National Review*, *Time*, or *Gung-Ho  For  Freedom*
>do not count.)

Er... of these three, I actually quoted one. Is the above a sample
of the scientific integrity you are after?

And from that one magazine, I quoted one of your "authorities":
Paul Ehrlich. Surely, that is kosher! 

>So please give us a lecture on this subject, Jan, and
>explain where Wilson goes wrong.  

A short one, O.K. ? His passage was a short one, too.

First, a global totalitarian conquest is very likely  to  be  ir-
reversible, except through total extinction of humanity, for rea-
sons I can give separately. If so, it cannot be repaired  "within
a few generations". Wilson goes wrong here.

Secondly, this, or the other disasters he lists,  would  probably
disable  all  possibilities  of  preventing or alleviating the
ecological disaster. A world in a state of economic collapse or
war desolation couldn't afford conservationism. Since these prob-
lems include his one (but not the other way) - they  are  worse
and less reversible. Once again, Wilson is wrong.

Thirdly, he obviously excludes future  human  activity  from  his
prognosis. Otherwise, he wouldn't speak of millions of years - we
are  not *that* predictable. But this activity can create species
and varieties, as well as destroy them. New organisms are already
being  produced  commercially.  Omitting this factor was wrong. 

When I said our activity *can* rapidly increase genetic  diversi-
ty,  -  I was speaking of *future* technology. However, there ap-
pears to be nothing (as long as progress continues) to prevent it
happening.  If you think it *cannot*, please say why.

>If time permits I will post some passages from Wilson that support
>and amplify the passage I quoted.

You might want to  check,  though,  if  Wilson's  predictions  of
species depletion for the 80's are coming true. The decade is 67%
over... He said *will happen*. Did he quantify that?

		Jan Wasilewsky