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From: leimkuhl@uiucdcsp.cs.uiuc.edu
Newsgroups: sci.math
Subject: Re: Math of Diseases
Message-ID: <9600047@uiucdcsp>
Date: Fri, 31-Oct-86 12:34:00 EST
Article-I.D.: uiucdcsp.9600047
Posted: Fri Oct 31 12:34:00 1986
Date-Received: Mon, 3-Nov-86 21:19:33 EST
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Nf-From: uiucdcsp.cs.uiuc.edu!leimkuhl    Oct 31 11:34:00 1986




I have heard that the course of diseases follows the pattern of an S-curve.
That is, after a slow initial rise, it increases exponentially until some
saturation point, and then resumes a slow changing behavior.  The black
plague only halted when the entire susceptible population was infected.  Many
people developed immunity to the disease without contracting it.


Of course the presence of alternative techniques of preventing the spread of
AIDs (it is not really very contagious compared to some other diseases)
changes the nature of the curve.  For example, safe sex and clean needles
can effectively prevent the spread of the disease.