Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Path: utzoo!mnetor!seismo!ut-sally!husc6!rutgers!caip!think!mit-eddie!ll-xn!cit-vax!elroy!smeagol!usc-oberon!sdcrdcf!ism780c!marv
From: marv@ism780c.UUCP (Marv Rubenstein)
Newsgroups: sci.physics
Subject: Re: Mind Reading
Message-ID: <4045@ism780c.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 21-Oct-86 22:22:53 EDT
Article-I.D.: ism780c.4045
Posted: Tue Oct 21 22:22:53 1986
Date-Received: Fri, 24-Oct-86 00:14:13 EDT
References: <217@sri-arpa.ARPA> <3598@yale-celray.yale.UUCP>
Reply-To: marv@ism780c.UUCP (Marv Rubenstein)
Organization: Interactive Systems Corp., Santa Monica, CA
Lines: 16

>however after three years of this kind of "coincidence" occurring
>regularly (one particular series of events I calculated as having
>approximately a 1 in 10^15 chance of occurring randomly.  This

You have to be very carefull about computing the probability after the fact.
Consider for example tossing a coin 200 times and recording the results.
e.g. HHTTTHTHH...  Now, what is the probility of repeating the sequence
exactly.  I compute the probility as about 6.22E-61. But what is the
probability of the first outcome?  Would you belive 1.0?

Also, consider the probality that Boston would beat California in the playoff
when they were behind in the 9'th with 2 outs and 2 strikes on the batter.
I actually made a bet with a friend at that point that Boston would win
the series.  ESP? I don't think so. Just a lucky guess.

     Marv Rubinstein