Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.3 alpha 4/15/85; site spectrix.UUCP
Path: utzoo!mnetor!spectrix!clewis
From: clewis@spectrix.UUCP (Chris Lewis)
Newsgroups: sci.math,sci.crypt
Subject: Re: Military funding in maths
Message-ID: <191@spectrix.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 19-Nov-86 18:14:00 EST
Article-I.D.: spectrix.191
Posted: Wed Nov 19 18:14:00 1986
Date-Received: Wed, 19-Nov-86 18:42:13 EST
References: <307@stracs.cs.strath.ac.uk> <2274@mtgzz.UUCP> <344@cartan.Berkeley.EDU> <354@cartan.Berkeley.EDU>
Reply-To: clewis@spectrix.UUCP (Chris Lewis)
Organization: Spectrix Microsystems Inc., Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Lines: 46
Xref: mnetor sci.math:215 sci.crypt:53

In article <354@cartan.Berkeley.EDU> desj@brahms (David desJardins) writes:
>In article <344@cartan.Berkeley.EDU> weemba@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU (Matthew P Wiener) writes:
>>In article <2274@mtgzz.UUCP> leeper@mtgzz.UUCP writes:
>>>						    Cryptography did not
>>>turn the tide in WWII,
>>
>>Nonsense.  Cryptography *was* the tide, major battle after battle, from
>>Britain to El Alemain to Ardennes II to Stalingrad to Kursk to Midway to
>>Leyte Gulf.   Read Hinsley et al for starts before spouting off like the
>>above.
>
>   I agree cryptography and intelligence are of great importance, but I
>think it is ridiculous to claim that the Axis would have won the war if
>they had had better mathematicians (or had better used the ones they had).
>The odds were too heavily against them.  Nobody is denying that crypto-
>graphy was of value, but can you seriously claim that it turned the
>tide of the war?  The tide turned in June 1941 when Germany invaded
>Russia (if not sooner); from that point on they didn't have a chance.

If there's anything I've learned from reading about the war, it's that you
cannot base any claims for who won/lost the war for any one reason.
If Stalin had believed the ULTRA decodings provided to them by Britain,
Russia wouldn't have been caught by surprise and the war would have ended
sooner.  If the US hadn't sold (under the table) a few old decrepid 
destroyers and some old airplanes in '40 and '41, Britain may not have
survived the battle of the Atlantic.  If ULTRA hadn't worked as well as 
it did, the Battle of Britain would have been lost.  Or, there would have 
been more Coventrys.  Or, without the unbelieveable courage of the RAF
pilots...  Or, if Germany hadn't declared war on the US in late
December of 1941, the US would probably have been fighting only in the Pacific,
and the European war would have lasted longer.  Or, if Hitler had started 
operation "Sea Lion" he might have won.  Or not (I've seen in depth analysis 
done by various strategic planners - from both AXIS and ALLIED commands -
done in the 50's I think, that said that it wouldn't have worked after all).  
And so on, and so on.

"ULTRA Goes to War" is an extremely interesting read for those interested
in ENIGMA (ULTRA was the code name for the information retrieved from the
ENIGMA intercepts) and the role it played in the war.  By Lewin I think.
Thank gawd the Poles managed to smuggle one to the English...
-- 
Chris Lewis
Spectrix Microsystems Inc,
UUCP: {utzoo|utcs|yetti|genat|seismo}!mnetor!spectrix!clewis
ARPA: mnetor!spectrix!clewis@seismo.css.gov
Phone: (416)-474-1955