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From: patrick@mcc-pp.UUCP (Patrick McGehearty)
Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Subject: Re: Launching shuttles soon
Message-ID: <2038@mcc-pp.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 13-Nov-86 10:44:18 EST
Article-I.D.: mcc-pp.2038
Posted: Thu Nov 13 10:44:18 1986
Date-Received: Thu, 13-Nov-86 21:47:24 EST
References: <7254@utzoo.UUCP> <346@xios.UUCP> <7275@utzoo.UUCP> <1010@husc2.UUCP> <260@cartan.Berkeley.EDU>
Organization: MCC, Austin, TX
Lines: 29
Summary: Risk assessment

I think this extended discussion of when the astronauts are willing
to fly is based on a misapprehension about why they raised the issue.
I am basing my opinions on books such as The Right Stuff, and general
knowledge of risk-takers and organization politics.

The astronauts are not afraid to fly when a reasonable risk/cost/feasiblity
tradeoff has been and the best available (in terms of time/cost/etc)
fixes have been implemented.  However, the crash and following
investigation gives strong evidence that they disagree with
previous policy on what are the reasonable tradeoffs.
Therefore, they are trying to change the organization structure
so that the "astronauts" as a group have significant input in
making these tradeoff decisions.
Statements like "We won't fly until its fixed" are made for reasons
of political positioning.  While legally it is feasible to order
flights over astronaut objections, it is politically shakey.
Imagine what would happen to NASA if some number of astronauts were
saying the shuttle was unsafe, and another one blew up!!?
(as an organization, and to the decision makers, never mind 
the national tragedy aspects)  Witch hunts instead of white washes
would be the order of the day.

I suspect that the astronauts will knowing accept considerable risks
if they feel in control of the risk assessment process.
I also believe that they are more concerned with the success of
the space program as a whole than their individual risk, but that
like the rest of the above is just my opinion.

- Patrick McGehearty (A Space Advocate like (most of) the rest of you)