Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Path: utzoo!utgpu!water!watnot!watmath!clyde!cbatt!ihnp4!chinet!steinmetz!davidsen From: davidsen@steinmetz.UUCP Newsgroups: comp.arch Subject: Re: 64 Vs 32 Message-ID: <1308@steinmetz.steinmetz.UUCP> Date: Fri, 20-Mar-87 16:58:12 EST Article-I.D.: steinmet.1308 Posted: Fri Mar 20 16:58:12 1987 Date-Received: Sun, 22-Mar-87 21:55:34 EST References: <3810013@nucsrl.UUCP> <28200016@ccvaxa> Reply-To: davidsen@kbsvax.steinmetz.UUCP (William E. Davidsen Jr) Organization: General Electric CRD, Schenectady, NY Lines: 51 Summary: An ecomonic issue The discussion of 32 and 64 bits is the best thing on this group for a long time! One factor which hasn't been discussed yet is the *need* for 64 bit machines. Eight bit machines could do office automation quite well, and many were used with Concurrent CP/M as multiuser machines. The 16 bit machines are being used to run small businesses, schools, etc. The 68020 and 80386 have enough power to run large businesses, schools, city and county government, etc. The reason that machines like PCs sold so well is that many people really needed them, and the large market brought competition and ecomonics of scale. The market for 32 bit computers goes all the way to running most countries. Who then needs 64 bits? The engineering types with large problems, the graphics hackers, the people doing realtime Mandlebrot displays, even include software developers and the percentage of the market is pretty small. All the reasons for the rapid migration to 16 bits and the steady evolution to 32 are missing. I predict that the micro and mini computer markets will be largely 32 bit for 5-8 years. I also predict the UNIX will become much more common, due to the cost of developing new software. The 32 bit computers we have now will run businesses and governments up to the national level, provide cheap multiuser office automation, run both classes and administration in schools, etc. IBM has gone with 32 bits for 20 years, I see no reason to think they will change. They have left the 64 bit market to CDC and Cray as a low volume niche. The issue is economic rather than technical, computers are subject to the same market factors as automobile engines: it's fun to have a big one, but most people won't spend a lot to get more than they need. The market (units and $) is in the small family sedan, 12 passenger vans and dump trucks are sold only to those who need them enough to pay, and sports cars are bought by people who want to project a flashy image. Disclamer: my opinion only. Suggestion: before you write that flame, talk to someone who has had some formal training in economics, or dig out your old text. -- bill davidsen sixhub \ ihnp4!seismo!rochester!steinmetz -> crdos1!davidsen chinet / ARPA: davidsen%crdos1.uucp@ge-crd.ARPA (or davidsen@ge-crd.ARPA)