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From: zrm@mit-eddie.MIT.EDU (Zigurd R. Mednieks)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.ibm.pc,comp.misc
Subject: Re: IBM new 'standard'
Message-ID: <5189@mit-eddie.MIT.EDU>
Date: Thu, 19-Mar-87 11:41:35 EST
Article-I.D.: mit-eddi.5189
Posted: Thu Mar 19 11:41:35 1987
Date-Received: Sat, 21-Mar-87 04:37:52 EST
References: <1010@rpics.RPI.EDU>
Reply-To: zrm@eddie.MIT.EDU (Zigurd R. Mednieks)
Organization: MIT, EE/CS Computer Facilities, Cambridge, MA
Lines: 45
Keywords: proprietary not upwardly compat. OS is goof...
Xref: mnetor comp.sys.ibm.pc:2600 comp.misc:372

In article <1010@rpics.RPI.EDU> chassin@rpics.RPI.EDU (Dave Chassin) writes:
>Does anyone understand why IBM is making the same mistake Apple
>made with the Mac? In other words why are they making a machine

I think they are trying to make the same smart move as Apple has.
However, IBM's move out of the vanilla MS-DOS arena faces many more
pitfalls than the Macintosh ever did. IBM could come out with a
clunker of a user interface. IBM faces entrenched competition from the
Macintosh at the low and middle range, and from Sun and Apollo at the
high end. IBM might find that they have completely overloaded software
developers' ability to cope with the MS-DOS, Windows, Top-View, 286,
386 and New-DOS induced Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) factor. IBM
also has a poor track record on recent product introductions, with the
failure of the PC/RT to make even the smallest dent in the workstation
competition. Apple had the luxury of selling a huge number of machines
with no direct competition, and enough of a market window to
establish a standard with a closed machine, then make a high-end open
machine.

Even if IBM does everything right, they face tough sledding. Anyone
out there betting that IBM has done everything right? Not the stock
market, with Apple trading within close range of its recent historic
high, and Sun as zoomy as ever.

The really interesting thing is that with the impending breakdown of
MS-DOS/8086 hegomony, will anyone else, e.g. NeXT, make a move to
establish yet another personal-computer/workstation standard? It looks
like the near future could be a window of opportunity for someone,
perhaps Xerox, or NeXT, or Wang or all of them. They key is that the
contenders will have to have comitted at least the resources Apple has
to developing a powerful new environment.

Apple has built a formidable defense for their market by spending a
lot on software technology such as extensions to the Toolbox and
MacApp. I would be very, very suprised to see IBM come out with
something truely competitive, not because they are incapable of it,
but simply because there is no advance sign of it, no leaks from
developers, no clues in existing products, etc.

We live in interesting times.

-Zigurd

"Every year I get older and go faster. It's a helluva deal."
				-A.J. Foyt