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From: ranger@ecsvax.UUCP
Newsgroups: comp.sys.apple
Subject: Re: Comments on old computer series software
Message-ID: <2948@ecsvax.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 24-Apr-87 10:03:00 EST
Article-I.D.: ecsvax.2948
Posted: Fri Apr 24 10:03:00 1987
Date-Received: Sat, 25-Apr-87 11:57:19 EST
References: <8704220554.aa00421@SPARK.BRL.ARPA>
Organization: UNC Educational Computing Service
Lines: 29
Summary: Software support for older Apple //s...


Some marketing surveys have been done that show that 80% of microcomputer
software purchases are made by new computer owners.  To interpret this 
we need a few relevent facts.  First nearly 3 million Apple //e and //c
machines are in the field.  About half a million ][+ machines are in 
the field.  Production of the ][+ stopped with the introduction of the //e
in 1983.  Production of the //c and //e is still in effect (for now anyway)
.  If you look at the way the software industry treated the Apple ][+ you
can get an idea of how it will treat the //e and //c once those machines go out of p
production.  It took nearly 2 years before Apple //e only software came out.
That was after production stopped completely on the ][+.  Since there are
so many //e, //c machines in the field (20% of 3 million is 600,000 machines)
it will be awhile before the manufacturers completely stop //e, //c development.
It certainly won't be untill after those machine are out of production.
The //e and //c are still outselling the higher priced //gs, but the gs
will come on strong as supply catches up and //gs only software hits the streets
that does significantly more than //e, //c software.  As a rough guess I'd
say that the //e, //c software industry has another 2 to 3 years or good
sales before things really start falling off.  Most will have switched to 
almost exclusively //gs production by then.  This assumes that Apple will
phase out the //e and //c as the //gs production goes up and its price goes
down.  I presume that Apple will replace the //c with a portable version
of the //gs.

Disclaimer: All of the above is pure conjecture derived by gazing ito a
crystal ball.

Rick Fincher
ranger@ecsvax