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From: turpin@ut-sally.UUCP
Newsgroups: sci.misc
Subject: Re: Dinosaurs killed by DAIDS?
Message-ID: <9114@ut-sally.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 24-Sep-87 17:18:05 EDT
Article-I.D.: ut-sally.9114
Posted: Thu Sep 24 17:18:05 1987
Date-Received: Sat, 26-Sep-87 13:41:20 EDT
References: <1057@mipos3.intel.com>
Distribution: na
Organization: U. Texas CS Dept., Austin, Texas
Lines: 36
Summary: Epidemic probably, extinction no.

In article <1057@mipos3.intel.com>, ekwok@cadev4.intel.com (Edward C. Kwok) writes:
> Does anyone
> know of any theory being proposed that blamed a virus for their extinction?
> I can imagine a virus attacking a particular nucleic acid sequence found 
> only in dinosaurs, leading to inability to produce, say dinosaur growth
> hormone or any other essential protein. Or plainly causing dinosaur 
> acquired immune deficiency syndrome. I am afraid the human species may
> be facing the same problem.

It may be possible for new viruses to wipe out species, and it is
certainly the case that HIV is a major health problem reaching
epidemic proportions. But if you are seriously concerned about
the potential extinction of the human race, HIV is not a likely
cause. 

For several centuries Europe lived with an epidemic disease that
was incurable, had a high mortality rate, and was transmitted
through bodily fluids by sex and birth. This disease was
syphilis. While it killed many, it did not cause severe
population decrease, in sharp contrast to the plague. Why? Two
reaons. (1) Its mode of transmission is very restrictive. Like
HIV, syphillis is hard to get. You have to have sexual
intercourse with someone who has it, be born of an infected
woman, or (in this age) share needles. (2) You can live a long
time with it. Syphillis (and HIV) can take years to kill. If you
get it when you are twenty by the most likely means, you will
likely live to see twenty-five or thirty, maybe not even showing
symptoms then. While this seems short today, in times past this
was almost a normal life span. 

AIDS is a terrible disease that is taking many victims, and I
hope that a cure or effective vaccine is developed soon. If it
was more contagious, like the flu, concern about human extinction
would be warranted. Fortunately, it isn't. 

Russell