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From: fiddler%concertina@Sun.COM (Steve Hix)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Re: Warm superconductors
Message-ID: <32619@sun.uucp>
Date: Mon, 2-Nov-87 13:31:39 EST
Article-I.D.: sun.32619
Posted: Mon Nov  2 13:31:39 1987
Date-Received: Thu, 5-Nov-87 23:40:46 EST
References: <8710301312.AA26625@ORNL-MSR.ARPA>
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In article <8710301312.AA26625@ORNL-MSR.ARPA>, rkn@ORNL-MSR.ARPA (Roger E. Stoller 576-7886) writes:
> The relatively near-term 'life-changing' potential of these materials 
> is probably very limited.  

It may a little early to tell yet.

> Their use in electronic devices (an area I
> know little about) is the one that seems most practical.  Their ability
> to be used in an application is limited by the massive engineering 
> problem of moving 10-100's of thousands of miles of transmission lines 
> underground and > reliably < keeping them cooled.  

This would probably be the case if transmission lines never needed to
be replaced, repaired, upgraded, or new ones installed.  If the new
technology provides lower costs, better performance, reliability, easier
acces for repair,...it will eventually probably be used.  This, of
course, supposes that the new technology can be developed and does
provide one or more of the desired characteristics.  Power companies
work with fairly small (financial) margins...they'd not be too likely
to turn down ways to improve their (and their stockholders) cash flow.

> Probably even more 
> significant is the problem of fabricating the necesary wire.  The 
> so-called 123-superconductor is a ceramic and as such has very little
> ductility.  Wire cannot be drawn in the conventional manner. A few 
> tricks have been employed to make 'wires' in the laboratory to prove 
> it could be done, but these techniques do not lend themselves to 
> economic, large-scale application.  

The materials currently discovered obviously don't fit the bill of
something required for making wire, or handling huge magnetic fluxes,
and...but aluminum wasn't exactly an ideal material 75-100 years ago.
The cap on the Washington Monument was close to being as expensive as
gold when it was put in place, but it wouldn't be now.  (Aluminum is
used for high-voltage transmission lines because it's cheaper than
the better-conducting copper for equivalent line.  Also lighter.)
The first aircraft uses of aluminum (by people such as Dornier) were
somewhat unsatisfactory, since early examples of Dural tended to
either exfoliate or turn into this interesting, but not very useful,
white powder.  Such problems have pretty much been worked out.

> These new materials are of
> significant scientific interest, and the longer range implications
> of their discovery are not necesarily clear - but the life-changing
> business is largely hyperbole.

You might be right...but, as you might have guessed, I don't think
so.  It's at least too early to tell yet.

	seh