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From: rupp@cod.NOSC.MIL (William L. Rupp)
Newsgroups: comp.misc
Subject: Projecting winners in elections
Message-ID: <899@cod.NOSC.MIL>
Date: Thu, 19-Nov-87 18:49:33 EST
Article-I.D.: cod.899
Posted: Thu Nov 19 18:49:33 1987
Date-Received: Sun, 22-Nov-87 10:27:07 EST
Organization: Naval Ocean Systems Center, San Diego
Lines: 41


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I believe posters to this group have missed one very important aspect of
the projection of election winners by television and radio networks.
One poster asked why election officials could not simply withold returns
until all polls have closed.  That wouldn't help!  The networks also use
data collected in *exit polls* to make their projections.  Network
people stop voters as they leave the polling places and ask them how
they voted.  It's like a mini-election.  The data are then fed to
the network computers which analyze them and project probable winners.

So, short of suspending voters' Constitutional right to talk to reporters,
and the networks' Constitutional right to free speech (i.e., the right to
broadcast results of their analysis of exit poll data), I think these
projections will continue.  Some have suggested that voters  lie to the
reporters, telling them that they voted for someone other than the
candidates and issues they really voted for.  This will never work.
People tend to tell the truth by and large to poll takers.  Also,
deliberately lying does not sound like a good practice within sight
of the U.S. flag in front of the polling place.

I don't know the answer, or even if there is a problem.  It sometimes
makes me feel uneasy when the media announce a winner on the basis of 15% of
the polling places reporting.  (This probably refers to actual
semi-offical returns; the exit-poll data, I think, are used to make 
preliminary estimates.)  On the other hand, I think Congress easily
could do more harm than good by fiddling with what the networks can say
on election day.  That seems like a poor day to limit Constitutional
rights.

(I hope someone who has personal knowledge of how the networks make
their projections will post more detail and correct any inaccuracies
that I may have included.  I do not claim to be an expert on this.  I would
especially like to know what systems and software is used to made the
projections.)

Bill
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I speak for myself, and not on behalf of any other person or organization
.........................How's that, Gary?
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