Path: utzoo!mnetor!uunet!husc6!hao!oddjob!gargoyle!ihnp4!ihlpa!dhp
From: dhp@ihlpa.ATT.COM (Douglas H. Price)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Re: Forecasts '87 and beyond
Message-ID: <6678@ihlpa.ATT.COM>
Date: 24 Dec 87 18:53:05 GMT
References: <2234@dasys1.UUCP> <36846@sun.uucp> <1596@ttidca.TTI.COM>
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories - Naperville, Illinois
Lines: 68
Keywords: from "The Futurist"
Summary: planes ain't cheap

> >In article <2234@dasys1.UUCP>, patth@dasys1.UUCP (Patt Haring) writes:
> >> From "Outlook '87 and beyond" ...
> >> 
> >> *    An airplane in every garage may soon be possible.
> >>      Lightweight materials such as plastics and aluminum
> >>      can reduce the cost of manufacturing, making
> >>      possible affordable, fuel-efficient "personal
> >>      planes."    --WT&F/Technology, Jan/Feb '86

I wish it were true that personal aircraft would get significantly cheaper...
Unfortunately, the cost of aircraft is dominated by a number of relatively
inflexible critera today:

1.	Certification.  It costs 1-2 million dollars to certify a new airplane
	design today; A LOT MORE if it is to be used for air carrier type 
	operations.  Thats why most small airplanes flying today are flying
	on certificates granted in the late 40s and early 50s.  It also means
	that aircraft are not built using "labor-saving" techniques.  Even the
	production techniques for a particular aircraft (wing jigs, parts specs,
	etc) are part of the certification, and even a simple improvement in 
	production materials, parts or procedures may endanger your type certificate.

2.	Liability insurance.  The cost of a new Cessna 172 in 1985 (single engine,
	four seat Chevy-of-the-skies) was about 85,000 dollars.  Despite a proven
	safety record (as far as manufacturer's defects are concerned) it cost
	$25K for Cessna's liability insurance **PER HULL**.  Last year, the insurance
	carriers announced that the cost of liability insurance for small aircraft
	would be DOUBLED.  This raised the consumer cost of a simple 172 to over
	$120K  That's why Cessna has suspended production of their basic aircraft
	and trainers.  This part of the bill is the only one amenable to a "quick
	fix."  Such changes have been considered in Congress for the last couple
	of years.
	
3.	Aviation hardware. It costs $10K for the radio stack, $12K for the engine
	(including the engine manufacturer's liability insurance).  Airplanes
	are not like cars, where if you don't like the sound of the engine you
	can just pull over to the side of the road.  On the other hand, just 
	stamping the word "aviation" on a piece of equipment means you can double
	or triple the price.  As has been pointed out in rec.aviation, the
	electrical alternator and regulators in some aircraft today are normal
	GM auto parts.  But, because the have been "certified", they cost four
	times as much as the part at the local car parts dealer.  And, you can't
	just substitute in the auto parts.  The FAA will revoke the 
	flight-worthiness certificate of the aircraft if they find out.

	On the other hand, some of the specialty parts, such as aviation radios
	have their development and certification costs amortized across a relatively
	small production run (in the 10s of thousands).  We as consumers, are used
	to items that have their production costs amortized across a production
	run of millions.

4.	The remainder of the dealer cost is  the "actual" cost of building the
	hull.  If we are talking about a "new" airplane (new type certificate) then
	we must amortize the cost of item 1 (plus interest) across the production
	run of the airplane.  If we are talking about a run of 10,000 airplanes
	in 10 years (not an unreasonable number) this amounts to a $150-500 bill
	per airplane.

In conclusion, I, as a pilot, would LOVE to have a new $30,000 four seat
production airplane I could buy like a car, but I don't expect I will see it
soon, if ever.  The continuing need to improve safety, and the litiguous
nature of our culture (read product liability suit) will prevent it.

-- 
						Douglas H. Price
						Analysts International Corp.
						@ AT&T Bell Laboratories
						..!ihnp4!ihlpa!dhp