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From: haitex@pnet01.cts.com (Wade Bickel)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.amiga
Subject: Re: Japan and semiconductors (further digression)
Message-ID: <2291@crash.cts.com>
Date: 6 Jan 88 14:16:11 GMT
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Organization: People-Net [pnet01], El Cajon CA
Lines: 88

jojo@astroatc.UUCP (Jon Wesener) writes:
>Don't forget that Japan also doesn't have to spend a lot of money on their
>military.  We pump billions into SDI R&D and the military which will have
>little to no results usable by the private sector.  An issue of PC-World
>around October has an excellent editorial on why the US is losing ground

     For a while I subscribed to this philosophy.  However, on careful analysis
of the U.S. Consumer Savings ratios, Corporatate investment, and Government
non-military investment and spending, etc., and how each of these fuels the 
economic cycle, I have come to the conclusion that without this spending
our economy would be in trouble.

     Sure, the Japanese are able to funtion without a large military.  They
utilize ours'!  When our gov. pays people to do research or be a Marine, or
whatever, that money is then spent in the civilian enconomy.  Part of this is
spent to buy Japanese goods.

     It comes down to this, we in the U.S. percieve National Defence as a
need.  Therefore we are willing to make sacrifices (ie: taxes) to satisfy
this need.  If you took away government spending on the military, investment
in technology would drop severly.  And unemployment would increase because
not only would the "Marines" be out of work but also many people who depend
on spending by "Marines" (used a generic military employee in this case).
Sure, the Government could try to substitute other endevours for mililtary
spending, such as Fusion Research or Space Exploration, but these are wants
rather than needs, so the populous in general probably would not support these
to the degree they respond to a perceived threat.

     Look at Macro-Economic models of the U.S. economy and the World economy,
and the "multiplier" effect that occures for dollars infused into the economy.
I think you will see that the only real problem is that the military is 
very inefficeint in yeilding anything (excluding "defence", ie: technology).
Even if this money were invested in a way that produced something it
is not clear that there would be enough buying power available to utilize the
product.

     Directly or indirectly, U.S. Military spending sustains perhaps 40%
of the U.S. economy (an educated guess).  Reducing demand by this amount
would be a disaster.

	My point is simply that before you can take the "super dove" point
of view on world/national economics the total picture must be considered.
"Star Wars" has nothing to do with protecting us.  Morton Thiacol (sp??)
can't even build a solid rocket booster, and were supposed to believe they
(the same industry) are going to build a "Star Wars" that works?  If you think
about it, it is obvious that the Soviets will always have enough weapons
which can get through "Star-Wars" that we will be vulnerable.  The point
behind Star Wars is to fuel and focus a weakening economy.  And to make
a certain segment of the population wealthy.

----------

	My original point was simply this; We as a nation cannot afford
to allow the Japanese or any body else to gain a significant lead in 
digital technology.  One possible way that a country, in this case Japan,
can seek to gain a lead is to dominate the market by selling at a loss.
In this way their internal chip industry is producing as if it faced a much
bigger demand than really exists.  We cannot allow Japanese companies, and
especially the Japanese Government, to take unfair advantage of the U.S.
simply because our buisnesses can only look a few years ahead (I'd say
one year).  This is what chip dumping is all about.  And if we allow it,
we will not be able to afford the state-of-the-art.

	I find myself in an interesting position with regaurd to all this,
as I'm sure do many of you, in that it is in MY interest to see chip prices
fall as low as possible.  Basically chip dumping translates into two immeadiate 
benefits to the U.S.; lower consumer prices, and higher buisness margins.
It also translates into a long range liability; UNEMPLOYMENT!  This has already
happened to the U.S. in a number of industries.

	So I offer the following proposed solution.  Why not estimate the
degree of dumping and tax the relevent imports 1/2 the estimate?  Then use
the tax money to strengthen our leading-edge chip research.  This is all
I am concerned with.  That we not fall behind in the ability to make state-
of-the-art components.

						Thanks, 


							Wade.

        [PS: Our hardware engineer (a native Japanese) told me that 
              4 megabit DRAMs were released to Japanese developers
              yesterday.]

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