Xref: utzoo comp.misc:1766 misc.headlines:2284 misc.jobs.misc:900 sci.electronics:1972 talk.rumors:1016 Path: utzoo!utgpu!water!watmath!clyde!rutgers!ames!think!bloom-beacon!mit-eddie!zrm From: zrm@eddie.MIT.EDU (Zigurd R. Mednieks) Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,sci.electronics,talk.rumors Subject: Re: Massive computer industry failures and layoff's coming soon!!!! Keywords: markets layoffs futures Message-ID: <8011@eddie.MIT.EDU> Date: 30 Jan 88 16:44:53 GMT References: <1105@polyslo.UUCP> Reply-To: zrm@eddie.MIT.EDU (Zigurd R. Mednieks) Organization: MIT, EE/CS Computer Facilities, Cambridge, MA Lines: 44 In article <1105@polyslo.UUCP> jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) writes: >... To my surprise it seems that >another 1982/1983 style PC market adjustment is about to happen. I.E. the >rapid market growth can not be supported by the total market size. >I use PC to mean Personal Computers of all types -- Apple, IBM, and clones. > Market saturation? It happened long ago. The number of PCs out there is still dwarfed by the number of 6502 machines out there, even if most of those are mouldering in closets. The number of Macintoshes is dwarfed by the PC market it is taking market share from. And, in turn, the Macintoshes dwarf the number of Sun 4-class RISC-based machines. Beyond that, we have the prospect of parallel machines coming to desktop computing. All this will take quite a bit longer that five years to arrive, mature, and decline. I'll leave the prognostications for what comes after to the professional futurists. Several new waves of computing power are coming in. Which means the industry as a whole is not going to go into a depression. It also means that there will be massive displacement. Luckily for us, most of the protectionist dipsticks in Congress would be too embarassed to call for the protection of the business of making 8088-based computers, unlike, for instance, their bailout of the business of making claptrap Dodge Omnis. But are people going to see the need for more powerful machines? You bet. In one case I can think of, poeple may not like to have to buy more powerful machines but when they see how badly OS/2 + Presentation Manager + some hairy graphics application runs on an 80286-based machine they will either give up on computers or write a check for an 80386-based machine. And if the folks at Apple can get their cost-of-goods-sold under control, they will take advantage of that situation as well. So buck up. The end is not near. Not even in sight. But if you try to stay in one place, you are guaranteed to get run over by the people hurrying into the future. -Zigurd -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Zigurd Mednieks MURSU Corporation (617)424-0146 25 Exeter Street Boston, MA 02116