Xref: utzoo comp.misc:1772 talk.rumors:1019 Path: utzoo!utgpu!water!watmath!clyde!rutgers!husc6!yale!decvax!mandrill!neoucom!wtm From: wtm@neoucom.UUCP (Bill Mayhew @ gadgetoria electronica) Newsgroups: comp.misc,talk.rumors Subject: Re: Massive computer industry failures and layoff's coming soon!!!! Summary: Is John L. Bass a corporate raider or something?... Keywords: markets layoffs futures poppycock Message-ID: <987@neoucom.UUCP> Date: 1 Feb 88 01:28:44 GMT References: <1105@polyslo.UUCP> <5105@well.UUCP> Organization: Northeastern Ohio Universities College of Medicine Lines: 50 Hi, John L. Bass talks an awful lot like a corporate raider trying to whip up some fear and panic in the electronics industry. I ask John to provide a little more science to back up the claims he makes for the fate of the electronics industry and the computer business in particular. Most mainstream economists are predicting at least status-quo in computer sales to modest growth through 1988. The reason cited is that the softening of the general economy will force the manufacturing sector to take steps to get lean and mean. The new geration of 80386 and 68020 based office computers arrived on the scene at a very opportune moment, just when business is going to have to start taking steps to up efficiency in its offices. John Bass' comparison of the computer business to the VCR business is not good. There are many vendors of VCRs that have little porduct differentiation to consumers, thus companies have had to create artificial diffentiation by drastic cut-thoat (often their own) price cutting. Only the largest VCR manufactures will have the resources to ride out the price war. Sony and Panasonic, for instance, have enough business from other endeavors that they can manage to sell VCRs with extremely thin margins. The computer business is quite different from VCRs in that there is much more differentiation among manufactures and models. Many products are targeted for specific niches. Even IBM realizes that there is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all personal computer, and they offer at least 8 distinct major model types. What is likely to suffer in the coming year are the importers of generic IBM-XT clones. A shakeout in asian XT clones will have very little economic impact in the USA, as very little on-shore manufacturing or engineering talent is involved. By the way, my entry in uuhosts shows that John Bass' machine, "polyslo" is located at the California Polytechnic University in San Lous Obispo. Its hard to say what people and what vested interests they harbor might have access to a machine in an academic environment. I recommend taking John's Comments with a liberal grain of salt. --Bill Bill Mayhew, Engineering Dept. Division of Basic Medical Sciences Northeastern Ohio Universities' College of Medicine Rootstown, OH 44272-9989 USA phone: 216-325-2511 (...!cbosgd!neoucom!impulse!wtm)