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From: kurt@tc.fluke.COM (Kurt Guntheroth)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines
Subject: Re: Massive computer industry failures and layoff's coming soon!!!!
Keywords: markets layoffs futures
Message-ID: <2787@fluke.COM>
Date: 1 Feb 88 16:50:43 GMT
References: <1105@polyslo.UUCP>
Sender: news@tc.fluke.COM
Organization: John Fluke Mfg. Co., Inc., Everett, WA
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Har Har Har.

Sure the market is becomming saturated.  But let's look at the evidence.

I am on my third computer.  I bought a state-of-the-art machine in 1977,
1982, and again in 1986,  I bought each new machine because the previous one
was totally inadequate for the computing I wanted to do.  Go ahead and try
to run PageMaker on a 1981 vintage IBM PC.  Run Lotus on a PET or IMSAI.
Go ahead.  Or, take out your niftiest 1979 software hack and try to read the
manuals.  It can be quite funny.  Unless the rate of technological
improvement decreases sharply, and software developers cease to innovate,
the demand for more powerful computers will continue, and firms will
continue to buy new machines, junking their old ones in the process.

A PC depreciates in three years.  That means a business can justify
replacing it after three years if they need a more powerful unit to do their
computation and can afford the capital expenditure.

New applications for control systems appear every month.  As more powerful
and sophisticated controllers become available, this trend will accelerate.
Makers of chips and peripherals don't care whether their wares go into PC's
or controllers or microwave ovens or airplanes.  The money spends the same.

Will there be a slowdown?  Probably.  Will one or more makers go bankrupt in
the next 12 months?  Why should they be different than the last 12 months?
Will IBM's revenue not be as high as projected?  Certainly, but IBM's sickness
is not the industry's sickness.  Will 75% of the techie workforce be
pounding pavement?  Hahahahahaha! (a personal opinion).

Kurt (I ain't afraid o' no ghost) Guntheroth