Xref: utzoo comp.misc:1799 misc.headlines:2296 misc.jobs.misc:928 sci.electronics:1994 talk.rumors:1020
Path: utzoo!mnetor!uunet!nbires!isis!aburt
From: aburt@isis.UUCP (Andrew Burt)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,sci.electronics,talk.rumors
Subject: Re: Massive computer industry failures and layoff's coming soon!!!!
Message-ID: <2190@isis.UUCP>
Date: 29 Jan 88 21:33:50 GMT
References: <1105@polyslo.UUCP>
Reply-To: aburt@isis.UUCP (Andrew Burt)
Organization: Math/CS, University of Denver
Lines: 48
Keywords: markets layoffs futures

In article <1105@polyslo.UUCP> jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) writes:
>
>How massive? Maybe as little as 15% of the computer industry labor force.
>	Maybe as much as 75%.

If you make statements such as this, particularly with numbers involved,
please supply the data and algorithms you used to arrive at them.  Are 15-75%
just guesses, or...?

>Surprized by this? Consider the US has a total population of about 200 million
>	people, of which, less than 60 million are working adults who may have
>	some exposure to using a computer in the work place

240 million is a more reasonable number; of this an average of 120 million
are employed during the year (according the 1987 world almanac).

How do you derive the 60 million figure (given that the 200 million is 20%
too low, in particular)?

>	Maybe 1 in 3 (about 20 million)
>	actually has or needs access to a PC (on their desk or shared use).

And how about the home market?  Is it insignificant or significant?

What about the demand to upgrade (XT->AT, AT->386, etc.)?
Do you consider that for cheap clones it is often cheaper to replace a
part or whole machine than to have it repaired?

>	Estimates of current PC shipments range between 0.7 million PC's/month
>	to 1.7 million PC's/month.

Again, where are these figures from?

>	Thus, the market is either already saturated or will saturate in
>	the next 24 months...

How do you arrive at these numbers?  24*.7million = 16.8 million, what
relevance to your other points above does this have?

I'm not disputing your claims (not yet at least) but before I consider
your arguments I need to evaluate your methods.

Please make a second posting on this matter.
-- 

Andrew Burt 				   			isis!aburt

              Fight Denver's pollution:  Don't Breathe and Drive.